Inflation is relatively low compared with the post-pandemic surge, when the year-over-year change for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9.0% in June 2022. The current 2.7% pace through through this past November is tame by comparison. The concern is that inflation has turned sticky lately, just ahead of expectations for a Trump 2.0 regime shift in government policies that some economists predict could lift pricing pressure. The bond market, as a result, is increasingly demanding a higher risk premium via higher yields.
Daily Archives: January 9, 2025
Macro Briefing: 9 January 2025
US jobless claims fell to 201,000 last week, lowest level in nearly a year. The historically low layoffs suggests a healthy labor market for the near-term outlook. “The Fed says rate cuts from here on out will be gradual,” says Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “Today’s claims data say that they need not be in a rush to ease monetary conditions. Fed policy is aimed at supporting the economy and the job market before a recession shapes up.”
