The ongoing rise in continuing claims looks worrisome, but initial claims are telling a considerably more upbeat story. Which one’s the better measure? The positive spin via initial claims is probably the superior metric for assessing the near-term outlook for payrolls and, by extension, the economy. But let’s dig into this view for some perspective before signing off on the idea entirely.
Daily Archives: November 22, 2024
Macro Briefing: 22 November 2024
US jobless claims fall to the lowest level since April. “The weekly claims report remains the best real-time monitor of labor market conditions,” Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons writes in a research note. “Right now, the data show that the labor market is trending sideways at a healthy level.”
