Elections have consequences and so Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president will surely change the calculus. The policy differences between the Republican president-elect and the Biden administration are substantial on multiple fronts, ensuring that the next four years will bring significant changes to trade, taxes and numerous other areas over which the federal government holds sway. All the more so since the Republicans took back the Senate, although control of the House (as of this writing) is still undecided.
Daily Archives: November 6, 2024
Macro Briefing: 6 November 2024
Trump wins election, reshuffling outlook for US economy. The Republican president-elect’s policy views on a number of macro fronts differ sharply from priorities pursued by the Biden administration, including trade, green energy, taxes and several other key areas. The federal government’s deepening budget deficit, which received little if any attention on the campaign trail, will also be a factor in the year ahead. “It was once unthinkable that the US would have almost three years with an unemployment rate around or well below 4% and yet run budget deficits of 6-8% of GDP,” notes Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and Gramercy. In a possible sign that the bond market will put pressure on the new administration to deal with the deficit, Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs this morning. “We need to watch what happens to bond yields, and there could be a tipping point if US bond yields continue to rise,” says Seema Shah, chief global strategist for Principal Asset Management.
