Prior to the last several years, modeling the gold market was relatively straight forward. But a lot has changed in recent history, and so has the mix of factors that are front and center in gold’s price trend.

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Can the stock market predict the election? For those who like to think so, the “Presidential Predictor” is cited. Advocates say this indicator has correctly forecast 21 of the past 24 elections, including Joe Biden’s win in 2020. The current reading points to a win for the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris. The forecast is based on whether the S&P 500 Index has incresed in the three months before the election, which signals the incumbent party will stay in office. On that basis, the market’s rise over the trailing 3-month window is telling, or so it seems. But since the market tends to rise generally, there’s plenty of room for doubt. “There is no simple, or complicated, economic model that predicts perfectly whether the incumbent’s party will win a presidential election,” says Jay Ritter, professor of finance at University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business. “When it comes to presidential elections, I would say that the stock market has about the same forecasting ability: better than nothing, but not a whole lot better.”

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