Will the two hurricanes that hit the US Southeast region recently weigh on the upcoming third-quarter GDP data? Probably, although for the moment the impact is expected to be minimal, based on set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Monthly Archives: October 2024
Macro Briefing: 23 October 2024
US economy will continue to provide much of the expected global growth this year and through 2025, the IMF projects. In its new World Economic Outlook report, the IMF lifted its 2024 and 2025 growth estimates for the US. The upgrade to America’s economic forecasts contrasts with flat or slightly lower estimates for other developed nations. For the world economy, “growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming,” the IMF reports. “At 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, the global growth projection is virtually unchanged” from this year’s April and July estimates.
Has The Bond Market Rally Peaked?
Will the summer rally in bonds survive the autumn? Fresh doubts are bubbling as the market reconsiders a range of risk factors, including renewed skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to cutting interest rates.
Macro Briefing: 22 October 2024
US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.21%, highest level since late-July. “With less than two weeks now until the US elections, concerns about the fiscal outlook and its potential upward pressure on inflation have become more acute,” says Robert Dishner, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.
High Yield Corporate Bonds In Emerging Markets Are Red Hot
The case for international diversification from a US-investor perspective usually centers on how to carve up a global equities allocation. The global bond footprint, by contrast, tends to be an after-thought for most investors. But after reviewing year-to-date results for bonds ex-US, strategists may be inspired to rethink the oversight.
Macro Briefing: 21 October 2024
US housing starts remain subdued in September. Residential housing construction eased 0.5% to 1.35 million units last month, which is close to the lowest level since the pandemic was raging. “With affordability still a pressing issue in many regions, home building will likely remain stagnant until the Fed is well into its easing cycle and mortgage rates have fallen another one percentage point,” writes Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a note.
Book Bits: 19 October 2024
● The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
David Spiegelhalter
Review via The Economist
… books that successfully communicate how mathematicians think, but are aimed at those not already in the tribe, are both valuable and rare. Over the decades many eager students have devoured Thomas Körner’s “The Pleasures of Counting” (1996) and Sir Timothy Gowers’s “Mathematics: A Very Short Introduction” (2002). Now Sir David Spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, has added to the genre with “The Art of Uncertainty”. His new book will appeal to many more than just aspiring mathematicians, for its topic is universal: how to analyse chance, ignorance and risk.
US Q3 Economic Growth Nowcast Strengthens
Recent economic data has lifted CapitalSpectator.com’s median growth estimate for the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. Using a variety of sources to generate a median nowcast, today’s revision reflects a slightly stronger expansion compared with the solid rise in Q2.
Macro Briefing: 18 October 2024
US retail sales rose for a third straight month in September, beating expectations. Spending increased 0.4% last month, marking a faster rate vs. the tepid 0.1% rise in August. “Strong retail spending last month suggests the recovery maintained strength through the end of the third quarter,” says FHN Financial Economic Analyst Mark Streiber.
Are Reports Of Small-Cap Stocks’ Revival Prospects Premature?
The rally in recent days of the Russell 2000 Index, a widely followed benchmark of small-cap shares, has revived hope anew that this slice of the equity market is finally set to recover after a long stretch of underperformance. But we’ve been here before, multiple times in recent years. Is this time different? Maybe, but the evidence is still a bit thin.