The market premium for the US 10-year yield over a “fair value” estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in September. The smaller spread extends a downside trend in recent months following a period of an extremely high market premium vs. the fair value, which is drawn from the average of three models.
Daily Archives: October 11, 2024
Macro Briefing: 11 October 2024
US consumer inflation’s one-year trend slowed again in September, but the core rate rose. The mixed data suggests that disinflation may slow or pause in the months ahead. “September’s CPI report has good news and bad news for the Fed,” Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James’ chief economist, wrote in a note. Citing the softer housing component in the inflation report, which slowed to its lowest annual rate since February 2022, he advises: “The good news is that shelter costs slowed down to 0.2%, month-on-month, and 4.9%, year-over-year. However, it also showed that there are still plenty of upside risks for inflation going forward.” The “shelter” category accounts for more than one-third of the overall CPI.
