There are no absolutes in economic forecasting. Thinking otherwise eventually leads to trouble. Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve almost certainly amounts to a false signal.
Daily Archives: October 4, 2024
Macro Briefing: 4 October 2024
US jobless claims rose last week, but the number of new filings for unemployment benefits remains low relative to history. The 4-week average, which reduces some of the week-to-week noise, continues to trend lower. “For the moment, the labor market looks steady as a rock and the economy appears to have missed falling headlong over the cliff into the depths of recession,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
