A revised long-term performance forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell again in August. The downshift marks a second straight decline in expected return for GMI, an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.

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US manufacturing activity continued to contract in August, according to survey data released for the ISM Manufacturing Index. The benchmark ticked higher last month but reflected contraction for the fifth straight month and for the 21st time in the last 22 months. The report also showed that manufacturers continue to pay higher prices for inputs. “Input price pressures moved up modestly to the highest in three months, but they are not so high in our judgment to threaten continued slow disinflation,” says Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital. “No bar to a September rate cut here but nothing to push the Fed to a half-point cut either.”

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US real estate investment trusts led global markets higher for a second straight month in August, based on set of ETFs representing the major asset classes. Another performance redux: commodities were the outlier, posting the only monthly loss, echoing the setback in July.

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US consumer sentiment ticked up in August, marking the first rise after four straight monthly declines, according to the University of Michigan’s survey. “Consumers’ short- and long-run economic outlook improved, with both figures reaching their most favorable levels since April 2024 and a particularly sizable 10% improvement for long-run expectations that was seen across age and income groups,” writes Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.
The improvement follows a stronger rise in US personal consumption expenditures in July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Consumer spending increased 0.5%, picking up from June’s 0.3% advance.

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