You might think that war in the Middle East, heightened geopolitical risk elsewhere, and the potential for turmoil in the upcoming US election would spell trouble for world stock markets. But a review of year-to-date results through Monday’s close (Sep. 23), based on a set of ETFs, suggests otherwise.

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US business activity remains “robust” in September, according to the Composite PMI, a GDP proxy. The services sector is the main driver, posting a “solid pace” of growth, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence. By contrast, the manufacturing sector’s output fell for a second month. “The early survey indicators for September point to an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace, albeit with a weakened manufacturing sector and intensifying political uncertainty acting as substantial headwinds,” writes Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global.

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