Tomorrow’s update on US consumer inflation for August isn’t expected to derail expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, but the disinflation trend of late looks set to stall. The estimate is based on CapitalSpectator.com’s ensemble model for the year-over-year change in core CPI.

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The threat of a US government shutdown on Sep. 30 is in focus after House Republicans unveiled a spending plan that’s expected to be a non-starter with Democrats. Even if the GOP bill passes the House, it will likely fail in the Democratic-led Senate. The odds of that the House will approve the legislation, however, are looking shaky.
Consumer inflation expectations are “largely stable” in August, reports the New York Federal Reserve. The median one-year ahead inflation outlook is unchanged at 3.0%, according to the latest survey by the regional Fed bank.

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