The economy isn’t always decisive in US presidential elections, except when it is. Think Herbert Hoover in 1932 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Each lost the presidency to a challenger primarily because of the economy. Current conditions are far less extreme, of course. In fact, by a number of metrics, the economy looks relatively solid. But there are also plenty of challenges brewing and so it’s debatable how much the economy will influence the results of Nov. 5 and which candidate will benefit the most.

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* Fed minutes highlight a “likely” rate cut in September
* Fannie Mae economists lower expectations for 2024 home sales
* Business inflation expectations fall to 2.2% in August: Atlanta Fed survey
* Eurozone business activity rises at faster pace in August: PMI survey
* US payrolls growth revised down by 818,000 for year through March 2024:

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