The total return outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in July, marking the first downshift in several months for this forecast. GMI’s long-term estimate now points to an annualized 7.0% performance, down slightly from the previous month, based on the average of three models (defined below). GMI is an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.

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* US jobless claims rise to one-high year
* Wage growth in US for Q2 eased to slowest pace in 3-1/2 years
* US light-vehicle sales rebounded modestly in July
* Construction spending in the US fell for second month in June
* ISM Mfg Index dips in July, signaling ongoing sector contraction:

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