The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield vs. a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com narrowed to a three-month low in June. The market-based yield is still well above this fair value estimate, but as expected in recent months (see here, for instance) the excessive market premium is still expected to slide.
Daily Archives: July 12, 2024
Macro Briefing: 12 July 2024
* Futures estimate of first rate cut on Sep. 18 rises to 90%-plus probability
* Rate cuts may be appropriate, says San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly
* Jobless claims in US fell to a 6-week low last week
* US consumer inflation’ 1-year trend falls to 3.0% in June–lowest in over 3 years
* US 10yr Treasury yield drops to 4.22%, lowest close since March:
