* Fed risks recession by delaying cut rates, predicts economist Claudia Sahm
* US industrial output posts strong rebound in May
* US debt as percent of GDP on track to top WWII-related peak in 2027: CBO
* Nvidia becomes most valuable public firm, overtaking Microsoft
* US retail sales rise less than expected in May:
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to the upside for this key market rate.
* US stocks (S&P 500) close at another record high on Monday (June 17)
* AI optimism persuades 3 Wall Street banks to lift stock market forecasts
* Central banks expected to boost gold holdings due to US dollar pessimism
* China’s housing slump deepened in May, prompting calls for more gov’t action
* California-based electric-vehicle maker Fisker files for bankruptcy
* NY Fed Mfg Index indicates contraction in June–seventh straight decline:
The Capital Spectator will be off the grid for the next several days as he treks to Rome for a brief diversion. The usual routine resumes on Tuesday, June 18. Arrivederci!
The US stock market’s strong year-to-date gain so far in 2024 has enjoyed wide support among equity sectors. The two glaring downside exceptions: consumer discretionary and real estate shares, based on a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (June 10).
* Fed appears set to leave interest rates unchanged tomorrow
* Three Democratic senators urge Fed to cut rates at this week’s FOMC meeting
* Median inflation expectations for 1-year horizon tick down to 3.2% in May
* EU expected to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
* Oil companies are reporting record profits
* US small business sentiment index ticks up but remains near multi-year low:
Ahead of Friday’s payrolls data for May the crowd was newly confident, again, that the Fed would soon start cutting interest rates. Treasury yields were sliding and expectations were rising that policy easing was near. But the May jobs report flipped the script with news of stronger-than-expected hiring.
* This week’s US inflation data will be closely watched re: Fed’s policy decisions
* Far-right parties gain seats in European Union election
* Mexico’s political left dominance after election worries investors
* Investors brace for new Fed estimates for rate-policy outlook
* US credit card delinquencies rise to highest level in over a decade
* US private payrolls steady for 1-year trend, rising 1.6% through May:
● The Last Human Job: The Work of Connecting in a Disconnected World
Allison Pugh
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence and labor-saving technologies like self-checkouts and automated factories, the future of work has never been more uncertain, and even jobs requiring high levels of human interaction are no longer safe. The Last Human Job explores the human connections that underlie our work, arguing that what people do for each other in these settings is valuable and worth preserving.
Recent economic estimates suggest US growth has slowed compared with previous estimates, but today’s revised GDP nowcast for the second quarter still points to a modest pickup in output over Q1.