● The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI
Ray Kurzweil
Review via The New York Times
In “The Singularity Is Nearer,” Kurzweil promises that, by 2029, A.I. will be “better than all humans” in “every skill possessed by any human.” During the 2030s, solar power, enhanced by A.I.-driven advances in 3-D printing, will come to dominate the global energy supply, most consumer goods will be free, and the “dramatic reduction of physical scarcity” will “finally allow us to easily provide for the needs of everyone.” Sounds rad!
Enter the blood robots. Have no doubt: “The long-term goal is nanorobots.” One day next decade, Kurzweil believes, you and I will feed nanobots through our capillaries. The little busybodies will swim to our brains, where they will connect our neocortex to the cloud, allowing us to expand our intelligence “millions-fold.” This is “the Singularity.”
Monthly Archives: June 2024
Decamping To Rhode Island
The Capital Spectator will be in Rhode Island for the remainder of the week. The diversion to the Ocean State will end on Monday, July 1, when the standard fare resumes. Cheers!
US Stocks Are (Still) Leading The Major Asset Classes In 2024
There was a brief period earlier this year when US shares gave up the leadership crown to commodities, but American stocks have retaken the performance throne in June, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 21).
Macro Briefing: 24 June 2024
* US stock market in longest run without 2% correction since financial crisis
* China and EU will hold talks on tariffs for electric vehicles
* Existing home sales decline for third straight month
* US Leading Economic Index fell again in May
* US existing home sales fall for 3rd month as prices reach record high
* US business activity growth rises in June to a 26-mo high via PMI survey:
Book Bits: 22 June 2024
● What Went Wrong with Capitalism
Ruchir Sharma
Essay by author via Financial Times
Many observers think the era of easy money ended with the recent return of inflation, because it forced central banks to raise interest rates. But this era was not defined only by low rates and did not begin only in 2008; it encompasses the suite of habits — borrow, bail out, regulate, stimulate — that have been building for a century. It is not over until old habits change.
What Does The Bank of England’s Delayed Rate Cut Imply For US?
If the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged is a guide, the outlook for the start date for a US rate cut may be further down the line than generally assumed.
Macro Briefing: 21 June 2024
* Eurozone recovery in June slows for first time in 4 months: PMI survey
* Citigroup predicts banking sector will suffer the most with AI-related job losses
* Bank of England leaves rates unchanged despite inflation falling to 2% target
* Electric vehicle sales slump in Europe, driven by demand slide in Germany
* US jobless claims eased last week after three straight weekly increases
* US housing starts drop to four-year low in May:
The Case For Portfolio Rebalancing Looks Compelling
By nearly any measure you cite, US equities are enjoying a stellar run. Despite numerous global risks, investor sentiment for American shares is resilient. The question, as always, is when is it timely to take some of the winnings and redeploy to other assets classes?
Macro Briefing: 20 June 2024
* US average monthly residential power bill expected to rise 3% vs. year ago: EIA
* Nearly half of Americans struggling financially, poll reports
* Most AI stocks promoted as winners have fallen this year
* Swiss rate cut highlights divergence in monetary policy for major economies
* US home builder sentiment falls for second month, dipping to 6-month low:
Is US Recession Risk Rising? Warning Signs Are Starting To Emerge
Recession talk for the US is on the march again. Although there’s still room for debate on the near-term business-cycle outlook, some indicators are highlighting decelerating growth that could be the start of trouble in the second half of the year into early 2025.