April was a rough month for investors, but the rebound in asset prices in the early days of May has revived expectations that the worst has passed. A key catalyst for the turnaround in sentiment: Friday’s US payrolls data, which posted a substantially softer-than-expected rise in April. The crowd views the news as a net positive because it lifts the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

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* Hard-landing risk for US economy is rising again, predicts Citi economist
* Eurozone business activity expands at fastest pace in almost a year
* China is a key factor in gold’s rally
* AI could fuel a spike in demand for natural gas, advises Wells Fargo
* US economy appears to be cooling as hiring slows more than expected in April:

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● The Complete Guide to Portfolio Performance: Appraise, Analyze, Act
Pascal François and Georges Hubner
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
An intuitive and effective desk reference for performance measurement in asset and wealth management. In The Complete Guide to Portfolio Performance: Appraise, Analyse, Act, a team of finance professors with extended practical experience deliver a hands-on desk reference for asset and wealth managers suitable for everyday use. Intuitively organized and full of concrete examples of the real-world implementation of the concepts discussed within, the book provides a comprehensive coverage of all important portfolio performance matters across 18 chapters of actionable and clearly described content. The authors have provided relevant cross-referencing where appropriate, “Key Takeaways and Equations” sections at the end of each chapter, and pointers to additional resources for anyone interested in pursuing further research.

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Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. This estimate should be viewed cautiously this early in the current quarter, but for now the current data suggest that economic activity may be set to normalize after post-pandemic volatility.

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* Global economy in 2024 will rise 3.1%, matching 2023’s gain, OECD forecasts
* Global manufacturing activity holds on to slight expansion in April via PMI survey
* US factory orders rose for a second month in March
* US labor costs rose sharply in Q1 as worker productivity growth slowed
* US jobless claims continue to hold at historically low levels:

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The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged higher for a third straight month in April. Today’s revised estimate (based on three models defined below) indicates a 7.0% annualized return for the unmanaged benchmark, which holds all the major asset classes (except cash), according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies. Today’s projection marks a slight increase from the previous month’s outlook.

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* Federal Reserve leaves target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%
* Inflation, painful adjustment or luck are only solutions to reckless US spending
* ISM Mfg Index slips back into contraction terrain in April
* US job openings continued to decline in March but still relatively high
* US private hiring increases more than forecast in April:

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Most of the major asset classes retreated in April. The overall losses mark the worst month for global markets so far in 2024, based on a set of ETFs.

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* US home prices increased again in March, reaching new record high
* Worker pay rose more than forecast in Q1, highlighting sticky inflation
* S. Korea export growth–a global bellwether for trade–accelerated in April
* Major US newspapers sue OpenAI, Microsoft for copyright infringement
* Election year politics are complicating the Fed’s policy decisions
* US consumer confidence index falls in April to lowest level in nearly 2 years:

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