A broad set of US economic indicators continue to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent. This profile upends the dark narrative favored in some quarters. There are possible warning signs brewing on the horizon, but the case for expecting trouble is still weak, according to the numbers.
Daily Archives: May 28, 2024
Macro Briefing: 28 May 2024
* US stock market was far more concentrated in the 1950s and 1960s vs today
* Global debt nears 100% of global GDP–highest since the Napoleonic Wars
* European Central Bank signals it’s likely to cut interest rates on June 6
* China is a tough act to match in the West for achieving parity in manufacturing
* Fed’s Kashkari wants ‘many more months’ of good inflation data before rate cut
* US durable goods orders stagnate for 1-year trend through April:
