There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. Context in the form of reviewing a wide variety of metrics is essential for minimizing noise. But in the search of early warning signs of trouble it’s useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and weakness. Caution is still required, but a particular measure of the ebb and flow of payrolls is signaling a warning and so it’s worthwhile to take a closer look.
Daily Archives: May 9, 2024
Macro Briefing: 9 May 2024
* Boston Fed president joins the view that rates will stay higher for longer
* China’s factory glut alarms the world, but easy fixes are nowhere on the horizon
* China’s imports surge in April, beating expectations by wide margin
* Americans reduced credit card debt sharply in March
* US stocks (S&P 500) pull back, still trading below record high set in March:
