The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged higher for a third straight month in April. Today’s revised estimate (based on three models defined below) indicates a 7.0% annualized return for the unmanaged benchmark, which holds all the major asset classes (except cash), according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies. Today’s projection marks a slight increase from the previous month’s outlook.

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* Federal Reserve leaves target rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%
* Inflation, painful adjustment or luck are only solutions to reckless US spending
* ISM Mfg Index slips back into contraction terrain in April
* US job openings continued to decline in March but still relatively high
* US private hiring increases more than forecast in April:

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