Just when you thought it was safe to assume that the soft-landing fix was in, the bond market has thrown a wrench into the machine. So it goes with the constantly shape-shifting risk profile for the US business cycle. Most of the time the changes are relatively trivial. Is this time different?
Monthly Archives: October 2023
Macro Briefing: 5 October 2023
* Hard landing risk for US economy rising as Treasury yields increase
* Rise in interest rates creates bigger challenge for managing deficits
* A stock market crash may be the only savior for a falling bond market: Barclays
* Earth on track for hottest year on record, predicts European climate agency
* ISM Mfg Index edged lower in September but still reflects moderate growth
* US private employment growth slowed sharply in September via ADP data:
US Median Q3 GDP Nowcast Holds Above 3%
Rising interest rates may threaten the “soft landing” outlook for the US economy, but the upcoming preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP from the government still looks set to report that output picked up from Q2.
Macro Briefing: 4 October 2023
* Republicans remove House speaker, leaving chamber in chaos
* Rising Treasury yields threaten ‘soft landing’ scenario for US economy
* Two Fed officials say interest rates will likely stay high
* US auto sales rose in Q3 despite strikes and higher interest rates
* ‘Stalling and divergent’ global economy expected, UN trade division predicts
* Saudi Arabia says its oil production cuts will last through end of year
* US job openings post unexpected gain in August:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 October 2023
The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge higher in September from the previous month. Today’s revised long-run forecast for this benchmark — a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies — inched up to an annualized 6.7% return, the highest so far this year.
Macro Briefing: 3 October 2023
* OPEC leader: “resilient” demand and low investment could keep oil prices high
* United Auto Workers union reaches tentative deal on contract with Mack Trucks
* Office market headed for crash in US, investor survey says
* Office attendance in big cities still half of pre-pandemic level
* Construction spending in US increased for eighth straight month in August
* US ISM Manufacturing Index edges higher again in September, close to neutral:
Major Asset Classes | September 2023 | Performance Review
Commodities and cash continued to top the monthly performance tables in September for the major asset classes. Also on display for a second straight month: widespread losses elsewhere for global markets, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 2 October 2023
* AI boom expected to “dramatically increase” energy consumption
* Sluggish China and global demand cuts Asia growth outlook: World Bank
* China’s demand for commodities growing at “robust rates”: Goldman Sachs
* US 10-year Treasury yield starts week near 15-year high
* China’s factory recover slows in September
* Automakers’ strike expands to 17% of UAW members at Big Three firms
* Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose less than expected in August
* US consumer spending increased for fifth straight month in August:
