* The Israel-Gaza war threatens to re-ignite conflicts across the Middle East
* China announces more stimulus to aid struggling economy
* Central banks ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts: JPMorgan’s Dimon
* US orders AI-chip exports to China to halt immediately
* Bitcoin surges ahead of expected launch of BlackRock bitcoin ETF
* US Composite PMI (GDP proxy) rises, suggests higher odds of soft landing:
In January 2023 the clues appeared to be aligning in favor of an end to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. It was a false dawn – the Fed lifted its target rate four times in subsequent months, by a total of 100 basis points.
* World fossil fuel use projected to peak in 2030, IEA forecasts
* Autoworkers strike expands to plant that makes Ram 1500 trucks
* China stock market selling accelerates amid rising anxiety
* Despite upbeat data, Bill Gross still expects US recession by year end
* Rising geopolitical risks are buying opportunity for stocks: Jeremy Siegel
* Why is the US economy resilient? Paul Krugman looks for answers
* US economic activity rebounded in September, posting above-trend growth:
American equities have enjoyed a hefty return premium for much of this year relative to the rest of the major asset classes, but in the current environment that outlier performance looks increasingly vulnerable.
* Recent economic data suggest US economy is accelerating
* Bond vigilantes are coming back, says UBS strategist
* US economy appears to be less interest-rate sensitive
* Chevron will acquire Hess in latest deal for oil majors
* China opens tax investigation into Foxconn, Apple’s iPhone maker
* Time horizon still matters for asset allocation decisions
* US 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% in early trading on Monday:
Joe Nocera and Bethany McLean
Essay by co-author via Financial Times
Legislators and regulators give a great deal of lip service to the importance of small banks and small business — but in reality, their actions almost always aid the big at the expense of the small, particularly when it comes to banks. Yet without small banks, small business will struggle.
Starting with bank deregulation in the 1980s, and then the response to the global financial crisis, we’ve made big banks bigger at the expense of the small. This despite the fact the crisis was caused by the big banks, not the small ones (and the small ones didn’t need bailouts). From 2002 to 2022, the number of banks insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation declined by nearly half.
The US 10-Year Treasury yield briefly crossed above the 5% mark yesterday (Oct. 19) — the highest since 2007 — before settling at 4.98%, based on Treasury.gov data. For buy-and-hold investors, the elevated yield looks compelling, at least relative to recent years, when interest rates were much lower. But the better question is: How does a 5% yield compare with US stock market performance?
* Fed Chair Powell says “inflation is still too high”
* Economists lift US growth projections through early 2024
* China to curb exports of key material used in batteries for electric vehicles
* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 5%, highest since 2007
* Existing home sales in US drop to 13-year low in September
* US Leading Economic Index continues to forecast weak economic outlook
* US jobless claims fall to 9-month low, near multi-decade low:
Although American shares continue to hold on to a strong rally from the year-ago bottom, reclaiming the previous market peak is nowhere on the near-term horizon. The combination of heightened geopolitical risk, uncertainty about inflation and interest rates and the ongoing political dysfunction in Washington provide compelling reasons for investors to adopt a wait-and-see posture.
* House GOP speaker race in stalemate as Jordan loses second vote
* Inflation is easing and economic growth is softening: Fed Beige Book
* 10-year Treasury yield above 4.9% for first time since 2007
* US household wealth rose at record 37% pace during pandemic
* Finnish telecom giant Nokia to cut 14,000 jobs
* US housing starts rebound in September after sharp fall in August:
