* Trump indicted in in classified documents probe by federal investigation
* Fed expected to pause rate hikes next week via survey of economists
* Resilient US economy raises uncertainty for Fed policy path
* Labor slowdowns at West Coast ports causing new supply chain disruption
* Middle-income buyers face a severe housing shortage
* China faces deflation risk: 1-year producer prices fall at steepest pace in 7 years
* US jobless claims rise to highest since October 2021:
Shares of technology firms, along with digital communications and consumer discretionary stocks, are the US equity market leaders by a wide margin in 2023, based on a set of ETF proxies. The rest of the field is far behind, with nearly half under water year to date, as of Wednesday’s close (June 7).
* US trade deficit widened by the most in eight years in April
* Eurozone economy contracts slightly for second straight quarter in Q1
* Japan GDP growth revised sharply higher for Q1
* Yields rise around world as traders lean toward Fed hike by July
* US approaching “late, big-cycle debt crisis,” says Bridewater’s Ray Dalio
* Freight railroad alert issued as shippers fear more West Coast port tensions
* Nearly half of Gen X population unprepared for retirement, survey finds
* US economic growth still expected to pick up in Q2 via GDPNow model:
The headwind isn’t expected to soften for the world economy in 2023. For a second year in a row, global economic activity will ease, predicts the World Bank. There’s also a bit of good news, relatively speaking, in the lender’s update of its widely read semiannual Global Economic Prospects report in the form of a slightly higher estimate for growth this year vs. the bank’s January outlook.
* US banking system may come under strain as US borrowing spree kicks in
* SEC sues Coinbase, alleging firm acted as unregistered broker and exchange
* China exports fell sharply in May, much more than expected
* Sequoia Capital, a major tech investor, will separate its China and US businesses
* Oil unlikely to reach $100 a barrel, predicts analyst
* Some economists say US recession fears are overblown
* World Bank raises forecast for global growth in 2023 to 2.1%:
The odds remain low that the US will slip into a recession in the second quarter, based on current GDP nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Although recession forecasts endure, the numbers suggest the economy will continue to expand in the near term.
* Global economic activity rises to 18-month high in May via PMI survey data
* US recession worries persist despite strong labor market
* Tech downturn on West Coast sending chill through region’s economies
* Apple unveils an ambitious virtual reality product
* US factory orders rise for second month in April on strong defense spending
* Services PMI posts “strongest upturn” in over a year in May, but…
* ISM Services Index eases in May, close to near-zero growth:
Widespread gains lifted nearly all the major asset classes for trading in the week through Friday’s close (June 2), based on a set of ETFs. The downside outlier: commodities, which slipped fractionally.
* Biden signs debt ceiling bill into law and averts US default
* Fitch may downgrade US credit rating despite debt-ceiling resolution
* Wave of new US Treasuries sales will be stress test for liquidity
* “We don’t yet see a significant slowdown in lending,” says IMF chief
* Expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2023 fade as economy stays resilient
* OPEC+ will extend oil production cuts to support crude’s price
* US employment surged in May–largest monthly gain since January
* Small-cap stocks may shine if US recession risk fades
* US stock market (S&P 500) rallied to 9-month high on Friday:
George Gilder
Review via RealClearMarkets.com
Though Gilder penned what many view as the underlying philosophy of supply-side economics with the brilliant Wealth and Poverty in 1981, in his spectacular 2013 book Knowledge and Power Gilder began to question the “incentive” economics that at least on the surface informs supply-side.
To Gilder, wealth is the creation of information, and individual tax rates arguably aren’t as relevant there, particularly in technology. We’re talking about people obsessed with inventing the future. The latter tells us they too aren’t checking individual tax rates ahead of time before deciding whether to work at the Post Office or start a new business. About the Post Office, a card-carrying, well-regarded and well-published supply sider once literally told me that high tax rates would cause our greatest entrepreneurs to take jobs in the Post Office…About all this, tax rates DO matter. Big time. That supply is the source of all demand is a tautology. But tax rates arguably aren’t the work catalyst for the reasons long expressed by supply siders.
