The wide spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and CapitalSpectator.com’s lesser fair-value estimate continues to narrow, albeit slowly. As outlined on these pages in recent months, the model continues to project a lower market rate ahead. Timing is unknown, but today’s revised analytics reaffirm the forecast. Continue reading
Monthly Archives: May 2023
Macro Briefing: 11 May 2023
* Yellen doubts Biden administration can avoid default without Congress
* Migrant influx to US from Mexico surges as pandemic-era law ends
* China and US debt-ceiling risk expected to dominate G7 finance meeting
* Republican-led states move to falls to near-zero pace, slowest in two years
* SoftBank suffers record $32 billion loss for its Vision Fund
* US consumer inflation ticked down to 4.9% annual rate in April:
Gold Looks Pricey Based On A “Fair Value” Model
The world’s favorite precious metal is enjoying a moment in the sun lately. Trading at record highs recently, gold’s allure is back in vogue as various macro risk factors provide a tailwind. Continue reading
Macro Briefing: 10 May 2023
* Biden describes debt-ceiling talks with Republican leaders as “productive”
* Debt-ceiling deal remains elusive, but leaders will meet again Friday
* Americans lack confidence in key US economic leaders, survey finds
* Cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex files for bankruptcy
* New listings for US home sales fell 21% in April vs. year-ago level
* OpenAi tops CNBC’s list of top-50 firms as 2023 disrupters
* US small business sentiment slips in April to lowest level in a decade:
Macro Briefing: 9 May 2023
* Biden and McCarthy will meet today to discuss debt ceiling
* Wall Street plans for trouble if there’s a US default re: the debt ceiling
* Fed warns of credit crunch in wake of recent bank turmoil
* China exports rose 8.5% in April, beating expectations, but…
* China imports fell sharply in April, suggesting economic growth is weak
* US inflation expected to remain well above Fed target in April data
* Gold holds above $2000 an ounce ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data
* US consumer inflation expectations fall in April for year-ahead outlook
* Bank lending standards remained tight in Q2, loan officer survey shows:
Foreign Bonds Led Returns In Last Week’s Mixed Trading
Fixed-income markets ex-US led performances during a mixed week for the major asset classes through the close of trading on Friday, May 5, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 8 May 2023
* “Economic chaos” awaits if Congress doesn’t raise debt ceiling
* Time is running short for Biden-McCarthy debt-ceiling talks
* China increases its gold reserves for a sixth straight month
* US payrolls rose more than expected in April
* US economic activity appears to be stabilizing at slow growth pace:
Book Bits: 6 May 2023
Martin S. Fridson
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
How well does it pay to own the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s best-performing stock of the year? Over the 2012-2021 period, the one-year total return ranged from 80% to 743%. This book identifies the quantitative and qualitative traits of stocks that made it to #1 and tells the stories of how they got there. A key indicator, the Fridson-Lee Statistic, makes its debut in these pages. Aiming for the massive upside of the #1 stocks entails substantial risk. It’s not something to do with more than a small percentage of your portfolio. But attempting to pick the coming year’s top performer can provide an outlet for speculative impulses that might otherwise spoil a prudent, long-term investment plan. And by investigating the statistically determined best candidates for #1, you’ll gain important insights into stock selection.
Desperately Seeking Yield: 5 May 2023
Trailing yields have increased for most of the major asset classes recently, based on a set of ETF proxies. The question is whether the relatively high payout rates offset concerns for the possibility of capital losses in the near term?
Macro Briefing: 5 May 2023
* Uncertainty hammers regional bank stocks as confidence wavers
* US Q2 GDP nowcast ramps up to solid +2.7% via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* Global manufacturing activity remained slightly negative in April
* German factory orders plunged in March
* Growth in China business activity eased in April via PMI survey data
* US jobless claims rose last week, but remain low by historical standards:
