* China foreign minister warns of conflict with US
* China exports fell 2.8% in Jan-Feb vs. year-ago levels
* Debt-ceiling risk for US economy in focus today in Senate panel
* Fed Chair Powell will testify in Congress today on economic outlook
* US supply chains return to normal in February, says NY Fed
* Meta plans for another round of job cuts
* US factory orders continue to decelerate in January via 1-year trend:
Repair and recovery was on display last week as the major asset classes clawed back some of the across-the-board losses in February.
* Fed submits report to Congress: more rate hikes needed to tame inflation
* China sets lowest growth target (roughly 5%) in decades as challenges loom
* Base metals mostly lower after China sets modest growth target
* Veteran emerging markets investor says he can’t get his money out of China
* Housing headwinds strengthen ahead of crucial spring selling season
* US services sector growth remains moderate in February via survey data
* Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder predicts Fed won’t raise rates to 6%, but…
* San Francisco Fed President Daly sees tighter policy for longer as ‘likely’
* US Treasury yield curve remains deeply inverted as hawkish Fed policy prevails:
Kathleen McLaughlin
Summary via publisher (Simon & Schuster)
Journalist Kathleen McLaughlin knew she’d found a treatment that worked on her rare autoimmune disorder. She had no idea it had been drawn from the veins of America’s most vulnerable. So begins McLaughlin’s ten-year investigation researching and reporting on the $20-billion-a year business she found at the other end of her medication, revealing an industry that targets America’s most economically vulnerable for immense profit. And she unearths an American economic crisis hidden in plain sight: single mothers, college students, laid-off Rust Belt auto workers, and a booming blood market at America’s southern border, where collection agencies target Mexican citizens willing to cross over and sell their plasma for substandard pay.
US economic activity looks strong or weak, depending on the data sets you choose to craft a narrative. That’s always true in some sense for the simple reason: there’s always some slice of the economy bucking the broader trend. But this time is different because the degree of the conflicting signals is so stark.
* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is meeting with Biden at White House on Friday
* Robust global economic data suggest central bankers need to raise rates further
* China business activity in services ‘rises sharply’ in February
* Eurozone business activity rebounds in February–fastest pace since June 2022
* Entire US Treasury yield curve now above 4%
* Average US 30-year mortgage rate rises above 7% again
* US jobless claims post downside surprise, highlighting labor market strength:
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected long-run performance held at 6.0% annualized in February, unchanged from last month, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below). Today’s revised outlook is slightly below the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).
* US 10-Year Treasury yield rises above 4% for first time since November
* Mortgage applications in US drop to 28-year low as rates rise
* Global manufacturing output rises in February after six months of decline
* Eurozone inflation eases in February but remains high at 8.5%
* Economists expect firmer economic growth in China for 2023
* US construction spending unexpectedly fell in January
* ISM Mfg Index ticks up in February but still shows sector contracting:
After starting the new year with roaring gains, global markets whimpered in February, posting across-the-board losses, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
* US Treasury official goes to Beijing despite US-China tensions
* China’s mfg sentiment rebounds, reflecting strongest growth since 2012
* Euro area manufacturing production stabilizes in February: PMI sentiment
* US home prices fell for sixth-straight month in December
* Chicago PMI continues to indicate weak business-activity conditions in February
* US Consumer Confidence Index eased again in February:
