* Chinese leader Xi meeting with Russia’s Putin today in Moscow
* Central banks say they will boost liquidity to tamp down bank-crisis risk
* UBS is buying Credit Suisse in effort to tame risk of banking crisis
* S&P downgrades First Republic’s credit rating deeper into junk status
* US lawmakers will review merits of higher FDIC bank deposit insurance cap
* Lending to small firms and individuals expected to fall in wake of bank turmoil
* Gold rallies to 11-month high:
Monthly Archives: March 2023
Book Bits: 18 March 2023
● Meganets: How Digital Forces Beyond Our Control Commandeer Our Daily Lives and Inner Realities
David B. Auerbach
Excerpt via Gizmodo
The Googles, Facebooks, cryptocurrencies, and government systems of our world accumulate influence at a mystifying rate. The constant critiques and attempted regulation directed at these systems never seem to yield real reform. Such efforts run into a brick wall for one ultimate reason: no one is really in control. Even the companies and executives who run them are trapped by the persistent, evolving, and opaque systems they have created. What is it that has so destabilized our elites so that they have lost control of the very systems they built and run? With every passing day we intuitively sense a loss of control over our daily lives, society, culture, and politics, even as it becomes more difficult to extricate ourselves from our hypernetworked fabric. No explanation ever seems sufficient.
The Fed’s Big Problem Just Got Bigger
Fighting high inflation is tough enough, but the Federal Reserve’s been trying to tame pricing pressure when the economy is showing signs of weakening, at least in some corners. That’s a major challenge, but it’s even a bigger problem in the wake of banking turmoil triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
Macro Briefing: 17 March 2023
* China President Xi to visit Putin in Russia next week
* Poland to be first NATO country to provide military jets to Ukraine
* Protests erupt after Macron orders pension reforms without vote in parliament.
* First Republic Bank set to receive cash infusion from largest US banks
* US import prices decline in February, second monthly slide
* Philly Fed Mfg Index continues to reflect hefty decline in March business activity
* US jobless claims fell last week, continue to indicate tight labor market
* US housing starts rebound in February to 5-month high:
Monitoring Volatility Regimes For Clues About Key Market Pivots
The stock market is forever surprising investors, but in the realm of risk the future’s a bit less uncertain, at least sometimes. That’s hardly a silver bullet, but it helps to manage expectations, especially in the task of deciding when and if market sentiment has gone too far in one direction or the other.
Macro Briefing: 16 March 2023
* France set for high-stakes vote on unpopular pension reform plan
* South Korea and Japan’s leaders meet for first time since 2011
* Shares of embattled Credit Suisse bank rebound on news of crucial loan
* US home builder sentiment continues to rebound in March
* Did SVB collapse from “wokeness”? No–there’s just no evidence for the claim
* Business inflation expectations rise in March via Atlanta Fed survey
* US Q1 GDP nowcast rises to strong 3.2%, based on Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* US wholesale price inflation unexpectedly eases in February
* NY Fed Mfg Index continues to signal weak conditions in the sector
* US retail sales dip in February following January surge:
10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 15 March 2023
US interest rates have been on a roller coaster lately, but there’s a case for considering the possibility that yields have peaked. The wild card is the Federal Reserve, of course. The critical question: Will the Fed’s policy decisions over the next several months conflict or align with emerging signs that rates look set to more or less hold steady, if not decline, from current levels?
Macro Briefing: 15 March 2023
* Russian fighter jet collides with US drone over Black Sea
* Regional bank stocks rise, recovering some of Monday’s sharp losses
* Moody’s cuts view on entire banking system to negative from stable
* Fed will consider tougher rules for midsize banks after SVB collapse
* SVB collapse fueled by ‘the first Twitter-fueled bank run’
* Should Congress raise cap on deposits backed by the FDIC?
* China’s economy rebounds after Covid lockdown
* US consumer inflation continues to ease in February via 1-year change:
Nobody Expects A Banking Crisis, But…
There’s always a new one lurking. It’s the nature of the beast. Banking is inherently unstable. Most of the time that’s not obvious and banking operations run smoothly. But panics flare up, sometimes for trivial reasons but inevitably a new bank run emerges. Chalk it up to behavioral ticks, irrationality or whatever narrative framing makes you happy. But history is clear: as long as banks have existed, the latent instability roars forth anew every so often.
Macro Briefing: 14 March 2023
* Investors rush into safe havens as banking turmoil roils markets
* Outlook for more Fed rate hikes under new scrutiny amid banking turmoil
* Wall Street considers risks beyond banking system after SVB collapse
* China’s Xi to meet Putin in Moscow, as early as next week
* Russia agrees to 60-day extension of wartime grain-export deal
* N. Korea continues to launch missiles to sea as allies hold drills
* US and allies unveil details on submarines aimed at patrolling Pacific
* Policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield falls sharply amid fears of banking crisis: