Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look at the data set in search of insight for deciding what comes next.
Monthly Archives: March 2023
Macro Briefing: 31 March 2023
* Trump indicted on criminal charges in New York
* Finland wins approval to join NATO
* Eurozone inflation falls sharply in March at headline level but core keeps rising
* Is the Fed trying to do too much all at once?
* China’s manufacturing activity expands at slower pace in March
* China consumer activity rises to highest level in over a decade in March
* Bank Borrowing from Fed falls further, a sign that bank crisis is easing
* US mortgage rates ease for third straight week
* US Q4 GDP growth revised down slightly to +2.6%
* US jobless claims continue to rise for year-over-year pace:
Is The US Facing A Slow(er)-Moving Recession Threat?
A number of usually reliable indicators in recent months have warned of elevated recession risk for the US, but so far the economy has proven resistant to the darker forecasts that are bubbling in some quarters.
Macro Briefing: 30 March 2023
* Taiwan president’s US visit could provoke strong China reaction, says analyst
* Wall Street Journal reporter arrested in Russia on charges of spying
* GOP bill in House aims to sharply increase US oil output
* Small banks losing deposits to larger institutions after SVB collapse
* Spain inflation falls to 19-month low
* AI starting to have impact on white-collar jobs
* Research suggests ChatGPT may provide assistance in portfolio management
* US pending home sales rise for third straight month in February:
Softer But-Still Resilient Growth Expected For US Q1 GDP
Despite warning signs flashing from several indicators, the US economy is expected to report moderate growth in next month’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 29 March 2023
* Taiwan’s president heads to US for visit, provoking China
* Fed’s Barr: there’s a ‘need’ for stronger bank regulation after SVB collapse
* BlackRock forecasts that investor bets on Fed rate cuts this year are wrong
* US Consumer Confidence Index ticks up in March, holding at middling range
* US electricity from renewables exceeds coal-based output for first time
* Amazon reportedly eyeing purchase of AMC movie theater chain
* US trade deficit in goods widened modestly in February
* US home prices continue to decelerate in January, easing to +2.5% annual pace:
Trend Profiles Revive Outlook For US, Big-Cap And Growth Equities
Forecasts that relative underperformers in the equities space are poised for a turnaround is a hardy perennial, but the expected change always seems to be postponed for several of the usual suspects. Notably, projections that foreign, small-cap and value stocks are set to outperform their broad US, large-cap and growth counterparts are facing new headwinds this year.
Macro Briefing: 28 March 2023
* SVB collapse was “textbook case of mismanagement”: Fed official
* Banking turmoil due to ‘sentiment contagion’, say analysts
* US and Japan announce trade deal on electric vehicle battery minerals
* Bond market is still flashing warning signs for the economy
* Semiconductor firms may have to choose between US and China
* Wind-power industry projects rapid growth this year after 2022 slowdown
* China ramps up emergency loans to financially struggling nations
* Modest growth resumes in Texas manufacturing: Dallas Fed Mfg Index
* Regional bank stocks rally, suggesting banking turmoil is easing:
Global Markets Rallied Last Week, Except For Property Shares
Nearly all the components of the major asset classes posted gains last week, based on a set of proxy ETFs. Real estate shares in the US and around the world were the downside exceptions, based on trading through Friday’s close (Mar. 24).
Macro Briefing: 27 March 2023
* Israel in turmoil as mass protests erupt over plan for judicial overhaul
* China’s managed economy continues to postpone a ‘Lehman moment’
* China’s central government borrowing at fastest pace on record
* US recession risk rises from banking stress, says Fed’s Kashkari
* US authorities consider expanding emergency lending for banks
* First Citizens Bank will buy assets of failed Silicon Valley Bank
* Copper prices looks set to rise further this year, analysts predict
* US business activity rebounds to strongest pace in a year in March:
