Monthly Archives: February 2023

Early US GDP Nowcasts For Q1 Are Wide Ranging

Depending on the source, the preliminary estimates for US economic activity in this year’s first quarter are encouraging, mediocre or distinctly bearish, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. But it’s still early in the quarter and it’s best to look at the numbers with a hefty dose of caution at this point.

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Macro Briefing: 8 February 2023

* Biden outlines his economic agenda in State of the Union speech
* Death toll from Syria-Turkey quake keeps rising, close to 10,000
* Fed’s Powell gives hawkish speech but investors stay bullish
* Shipping giant Maersk expects global trade to shrink by as much as 2.5% in 2023
* Inflation’s “worst is behind us”, says Charles Schwab’s top fixed-income strategist
* Zoom is latest tech firm to announce big layoffs
* US trade deficit widens in December–reaches record high for 2022
* US junk bond yield spread stays low despite surge in tighter lending standards:

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Macro Briefing: 7 February 2023

* Death toll rises above 5000 in Turkey-Syria earthquake
* US economy is key challenge for Biden in tonight’s State of Union address
* GOP House Speaker McCarthy calls on Biden to agree to spending cuts
* Chinese search engine giant Baidu’s shares surge after AI bot announcement
* Google set to launch Bard, an artificial intelligence bot to rival ChatGPT
* CVS set to acquire primary-care provider Oak Street Health for $10.5 billion
* Market breadth improves in this year’s stock market rally
* Policy-sensitive 2-year US Treasury yield rises to one-month high:

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Macro Briefing: 6 February 2023

* China calls for calm after US shoots down suspected spy balloon
* Powerful earthquake kills 1,300 people in Turkey and Syria
* Has a new cycle of growth started for the US economy?
* Global green trade and subsidy war is accelerating
* China’s reopening will boost global growth this year
* Dell announces layoffs in latest round of cuts in tech industry
* Speculative stocks are leading the stock market’s rally this year
* US payrolls blindsides economists, partly due to seasonal adjustment
* Fed funds funds futures pricing in higher odds of two more 1/4-point rate hikes:

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Book Bits: 4 February 2023

The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism
Martin Wolf
Review via The Economist
For anyone old enough to remember the fall of communism, recent history has been something of a shock. The triumph of liberal political and economic systems has been spoilt: by rich-country blunders, the rise of authoritarian China, and ultimately by a distressing loss of faith in democracy itself in what was once called the free world. This crisis of democracy looks less dire than it did a year or two ago, thanks to political change in America and missteps by China and Russia. But the danger has not passed, and the need to understand democracy’s retreat remains urgent.

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Macro Briefing: 3 February 2023

* Pentagon says Chinese spy balloon spotted over Montana
* China business activity expands in January–first rise in five months
* Eurozone economy grows in January for first time since June
* US mortgage rates decline for fourth straight week
* Worker productivity in US increases faster than expected in Q4
* Austerity is the new new thing for the tech industry
* New orders for US-manufactured goods rebound sharply in December
* US jobless claims edge down last week, holding near record low, but…
* Announced job cuts rose above 100,000 in January–highest in over 2 years:

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Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 February 2023

The long-run performance outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in January, reaching an 6% annualized forecast, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below). Today’s estimate remains in line with the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).

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