The Federal Reserve appears to be approaching the end of its rate-hiking policy, based on estimates from the bond market and economic conditions. But there’s a wild card that could derail the forecast: inflation stays elevated for longer than currently expected.
Monthly Archives: January 2023
Macro Briefing: 5 January 2023
* No speaker elected in House after second day
* Until a speaker is elected, normal House governing activity isn’t functioning
* Inflation has not “turned the corner yet,” says IMF official
* Amazon will layoff 18,000 workers, biggest cut in tech recently
* China economy continues contract, mildly, in December via PMI survey data
* China accused of “under-representing” severity of its Covid outbreak, says WHO
* US job openings remain high in November, highlighting tight labor market
* Fed officials expect higher rates for ‘some time’, according to minutes
* US ISM Mfg Index falls again in December, marking second month of contraction:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 January 2023
The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, slipping below 6% annualized, based on the average forecast for three models. Today’s estimate is roughly in line with the trailing 10-year return for GMI, an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash).
Macro Briefing: 4 January 2023
* House adjourns without picking a speaker, marking chaotic opening
* New Covid-19 variant has ‘alarming’ immunity evasion, experts advise
* US Treasury yields fall as demand for safe-haven bonds rebound
* Natural gas prices decline amid forecasts of warmer weather
* UK expected to suffer deepest recession in 2023 among G-10 nations
* Global mfg downturn continues in December, based on PMI survey data
* Eurozone recession eases and inflation cools in December via PMI survey data
* US manufacturing recession deepens in December via PMI survey data:
Major Asset Classes | December 2022 | Performance Review
Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The rest of the field lost ground last year, in some cases by hefty degrees, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 3 January 2023
* Recession will strike one-third of countries in 2023, predicts IMF chief
* Leadership of House still uncertain as new Congress is set to convene
* Will the war in Ukraine accelerate India’s ascent?
* The worst may be over for Europe’s factory sector
* First regular shipment of US liquefied natural gas arrives in Germany today
* Tech-industry worker layoffs are accelerating
* Tesla’s Elon Musk is first person ever to lose $200 billion in wealth
* Largest US oil firms refocus on developing supplies in Western Hemisphere
* China economic activity continues to slow in December via PMI survey data:
A Fresh Start…
