There’s an old joke in the world of statistics that says if you torture the data long enough, it’ll say anything you want. But sometimes torturing is redundant. Consider the art/science of deciding how to read the state of US business cycle at the moment. Is recession risk high, low or somewhere in between? Yes, yes and yes.
Daily Archives: January 27, 2023
Macro Briefing: 27 January 2023
* US jobless claims fall, highlighting tight labor market conditions
* US durable goods orders rose in December, fueled by aircraft orders
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity (3mo avg) falls in December; new economic warning
* Money supply data is back in focus after inflation roller coaster
* Big oil firms expected to report record annual profits
* 10yr US Treasury yield rises above 3.5% after better-than-expected GDP report
* US economy rose 2.9% in fourth quarter, beating expectations:
