Monthly Archives: December 2022

Best Of Book Bits 2022: Part I

The year that’s nearly over has taken the world on one heck of a ride, quite often for the wrong reasons. The good news is that the publishing world has continued to mint great books, including several in the finance and economics category that have appeared in CapitalSpectator.com’s weekly Book Bits column. Before we bid adieu to 2022, let’s review some of the highlights on these pages. Here are ten books from the year’s archives – titles that for one reason or another caught your editor’s eye. Five today, followed by another five on December 31. Happy reading!

Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World
Gaia Vince
Review via Datebook
In “Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World,” science writer Gaia Vince (“Transcendence” and “Adventures in the Anthropocene”) addresses how the climate chaos of the coming century will influence where and how we live. The essence of her thesis is simple: “People will have to move to survive.”
The complexity arises in the details: Vince suggests that of the roughly 8 billion people on the planet today, around 3.5 billion will be forced to move north within the next 50 years because “hotter temperatures combined with more intense humidity” will have made their environment unlivable. Which brings us to the thorniest question in this scenario: How? The sheer complexity of such a move is staggering.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 23 December 2022

* Senate passes funding bill that keeps government open through September
* Global supply chains are normal again after Covid disruption, but…
* A new CNBC survey of logistics managers suggests problems will persist
* US economy remains surprisingly strong, even if it’s not obvious
* Mortgage rates drop for sixth straight week
* US population rises 0.4% this year, close to slowest increase on record
* US economy in Q3 grew faster than previously estimated
* Low US jobless claims still highlight tight labor market conditions
* US Leading Economic Index continues to signal elevated recession risk:

Continue reading

Modest GDP Growth Expected In Q4 As Recession Risk Lurks

Economic output appears on track to post a second quarterly increase, based on the median nowcast for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. At the same time, recession risk is elevated, according to several estimates of business-cycle activity. The conflicting signals suggest the potential for relatively sharp upside or downside surprises in economic updates in the weeks ahead.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 22 December 2022

* Zelensky, in visit to Washington, urges US to help it defeat Russia
* US unveils new $1.8 billion of new military aid for Ukraine
* Kremlin warns that more US arms in Ukraine will aggravate war
* China’s Xi bets on economic growth as distraction from Covid outbreak
* Netanyahu on brink of returning to power as Israel prime minister
* US life expectancy in 2021 fell to lowest level since 1996
* Will AI chat bots become the next big disrupter in tech?
* Existing home sales in US continued falling in November–10th straight decline
* US consumer confidence rebounds in December after two months of declines:

Continue reading

Is The Yield Curve A Reliable Predictor Of Recession?

Judging by the ink spilled on the topic over the years, the overwhelming assumption is “yes.” Surely by the standard of using one indicator, the spread on short-term less long-term yields for US Treasuries is a tough act to beat. But just when you thought it was safe to rely on the yield curve to forecast recession risk, the “godfather” of this indicator is expressing doubt.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 21 December 2022

* Ukrainian President Zelensky visits Washington today
* US continues to refine restrictions on China’s potential chip stars
* Congress moving forward with funding bill to avoid government shutdown
* High prices for crops and livestock fueling boom in US farm belt
* Congress may pass new law to promote accumulating retirement savings
* US housing permits fall sharply, posting deepest 1-year decline in 13 years:

Continue reading

Desperately Seeking Yield: 20 December 2022

Markets continue to fall and trailing yields continue to rise. The inverse relationship, in theory, presents yield-hungry investors with enhanced opportunity. The challenge, as always, is whether to believe that what’s rising in the rear-view mirror will translate to hard cash in your account.

Continue reading

Macro Briefing: 20 December 2022

* Putin visits Belarus, raising concern of new front in Ukraine war
* China appears to be facing surging Covid cases
* US worried that new China Covid outbreak will spawn new virus mutations
* Bank of Japan widens 10-year government bond yield range
* Global oil market remains tight: Saudi Aramco, world’s largest oil producer
* Meta may face $12 billion in new fines from European Union
* US homebuilder sentiment continues falling in December:

Continue reading