Judging by the ink spilled on the topic over the years, the overwhelming assumption is “yes.” Surely by the standard of using one indicator, the spread on short-term less long-term yields for US Treasuries is a tough act to beat. But just when you thought it was safe to rely on the yield curve to forecast recession risk, the “godfather” of this indicator is expressing doubt.
Daily Archives: December 21, 2022
Macro Briefing: 21 December 2022
* Ukrainian President Zelensky visits Washington today
* US continues to refine restrictions on China’s potential chip stars
* Congress moving forward with funding bill to avoid government shutdown
* High prices for crops and livestock fueling boom in US farm belt
* Congress may pass new law to promote accumulating retirement savings
* US housing permits fall sharply, posting deepest 1-year decline in 13 years:
