The recession warnings have been piling up this year, but thanks to growth in consumer spending and hiring the US economic expansion has endured. Yesterday’s surprisingly weak retail sales data for November, however, suggest that the consumer sector may be buckling. If so, that leaves the labor market as the last major firewall that keeps the economic trend from slipping over the edge.
Daily Archives: December 16, 2022
Macro Briefing: 16 December 2022
* Senate passes bill to avoid end-of-week government shutdown
* Russia continues to attack Ukraine with missile barrage
* US jobless claims fall to 3-month low, highlight tight labor market
* Eurozone economic contraction eased in December via PMI survey data
* European Central Bank hikes interest rates, warns of more to come
* NY Fed Mfg Index declined in December but outlook is relatively bright
* Philly Fed Mfg Index slumps to lowest level since May 2020
* US industrial output fell in November, weighed down by fall in manufacturing
* US Q4 GDP nowcast revised down to +2.8% via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* US retail sales fell more than expected in November:
