Monthly Archives: November 2022

Macro Briefing: 16 November 2022

* NATO convenes emergency meeting after missile hits Poland
* Biden says missile that hit Poland ‘unlikely’ fired from Russia
* Russia denies blame for missile that strikes Poland
* Group of 20 leading economies condemn Russia for Ukraine war
* UK inflation rises to 41-year high in October: +11.1%
* US household debt surges at fastest pace 15 years fueled by credit card use
* US wholesale inflation rose less than expected in October
* NY Fed Manufacturing Index rebounds in November but outlook weakens:

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Macro Briefing: 15 November 2022

* Republicans now within 1 seat of retaking House after voting updates
* Fed’s Brainard says rate hikes likely to slow at next meeting
* China retail sales and industrial output post weaker-than-expected results
* Amazon reportedly plans to announce mass layoffs
* Global population reaches 8 billion
* Americans expecting higher inflation for year ahead via NY Fed October survey
* Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracts in Q3
* Economists lift inflation outlook through 2023, according to new survey:

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Macro Briefing: 14 November 2022

* Dems hold the Senate as House control remains unclear
* Democrats say they’ll address US debt ceiling limit in coming weeks
* Fed’s Waller: “We’ve still got a ways to go” before pausing rate hikes, he says
* Biden meets President Xi and aim to ‘manage out differences’
* FTX collapse prompts rethink for crypto’s role in asset allocation
* Is de-growth the best way to address climate change?
* Pandemic housing bubble is bursting, says chief economist at KPMG.
* Small farmers priced out of market as farmland values reach record highs
* Eurozone industrial production is surprisingly strong in October
* US Dollar Index fell to 3-month low on Friday:

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Book Bits: 12 November 2022

For Profit: A History of Corporations
William Magnuson
Review via The Economist
There is no mention of Elon Musk in William Magnuson’s magnificent history of corporations, which stretches from the societas publicanorum of ancient Rome, through Renaissance Florence, the Age of Discovery and the might of American industrial capitalism to Silicon Valley. Yet reading it makes clear why the pioneer of electric cars, private rockets—and now, via Twitter, controller of part of the public sphere—commands attention. For more than 2,000 years, corporations such as his have produced some of humankind’s greatest achievements. But usually the most dazzling overstep the mark, leaving a trail of debris and distrust behind them.

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Peak Inflation Watch: 11 November 2022

US consumer inflation eased in October, posting a softer-than-expected increase and spurring fresh expectations that pricing pressure has peaked. Even if that’s true, inflation still looks set to remain high and the Federal Reserve remains on track to continue raising interest rates, perhaps at a slower pace than recently forecast. But in the wake of yesterday’s report, there’s a new reason to think that the inflation surge has crested.

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Macro Briefing: 11 November 2022

* US Senate control still unclear as GOP edges toward retaking House
* Russia retreats from key city in southern Ukraine
* Softer US inflation report for October eases Covid measures as new cases surge
* US mortgage rates rebound above 7%
* Another warning for US housing from the largest home builder
* UK economy fell 0.2% in Q3, hinting at start of recession
* US jobless claims edge higher but remain near lowest in decades
* US consumer inflation slows more than forecast in October:

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Can The Fed Tame Inflation Or Is It Different This Time?

A widely discussed criticism of the Federal Reserve is that the central bank was asleep at the switch last year, when it waited too long to begin tightening monetary policy to nip emerging inflation in the bud. The critique implies that adopting a more hawkish policy earlier would have spared the US from the high inflation that now stalks the economy. But a review of other central banks that followed that script suggests otherwise.

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Macro Briefing: 10 November 2022

* Hurricane Nicole weakens to tropical storm over east-central Florida
* Ukraine peace talks still unlikely as Russia retreats from key position
* Binance abandons FTX rescue, leaving crypto exchange on brink of collapse
* US 3mo-10yr Treasury yield curve stays negative, returning to 2-1/2 year low:

US debt ceiling in focus as Republicans looks set to take over the House. “If Republicans win the House and Democrats retain the Senate, we envision an emboldened GOP calling for spending cuts as a pre-condition for agreement to raising the debt ceiling,” say Anna Wong and Andrew Husby of Bloomberg Economics. “Brinkmanship on that debate could see borrowing costs rise, tipping the economy from a short and mild recession next year into something more damaging.”