In early October the near-term outlook for the US business cycle looked mildly grim and output was forecast to turn slightly negative starting in November. But after four weeks the dark estimate reversed and economic activity is again set to stay moderately positive in the immediate future. Recession risk still lurks on the horizon, but for the moment the near-term macro trend has strengthened.
Daily Archives: November 4, 2022
Macro Briefing: 4 November 2022
* North Korea’s provocative run of missile launches continues
* Netanyahu set for return as prime minister of Israel
* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in China visit, calls for economic ties ‘as equals’
* US holiday sales expected to rise 6% to 8%, according to an industry forecast
* US factory orders post moderate gain in September
* US jobless claims remain low, highlighting tight labor market
* Services sector contraction in US deepens in October via PMI survey
* US services sector growth slows in October to softest pace in 2-1/2 years:
