For most equity strategies diversified across global markets, this year’s results will be painful. Short of a dramatic run higher between now and the end of 2022, red ink will prevail. But when losses dominate, it’s time to start looking for bargains.
Monthly Archives: November 2022
Macro Briefing: 30 November 2022
* Biden calls on Congress to ‘immediately’ pass legislation to avert rail shutdown
* Junk bonds rise, fueled by speculation that rate hikes have peaked
* China manufacturing activity fell at a deeper pace in November
* China may reopen in March, easing zero-Covid policy, predicts economist
* Eurozone inflation eases slightly as energy-price surge softens
* Stagflation risk for the US is rising, warns analyst
* Home prices in US fell for third straight month in September
* US consumer confidence eased for second month in November:
Is The Bond Market Pricing In The End Game For Rate Hikes?
It’s been an unusually rough year for bond investing, but there are hints that the market is forecasting that the worst has passed. If correct, shifting to a risk-on posture offers the opportunity for hefty returns going forward.
Macro Briefing: 29 November 2022
* Protests in China create new uncertainty global economic outlook
* China reports first decline in daily Covid infections in more than a week
* Inflation fight could last through 2024, says NY Fed president
* Business groups ask Congress to prevent rail strike
* Eurozone economic sentiment in November rises for first time in 9 months
* Cryptocurrency lender BlockFi files for bankruptcy, latest casualty in FTX crisis
* Meta fined $276 million in Eurozone for Facebook data leak
* Texas factory activity slumped for seventh straight month in November:
Stocks In Developed Markets Ex-US Roared Higher Last Week
This year’s selling looked excessive in developed-market shares ex-US and so the crowd continued to snap up stocks in this bucket during the trading week through Friday, Nov. 25. The rally delivered the strongest weekly gain for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs. But the return of risk-on sentiment may be short-lived if the eruption of widespread protests in China against Covid restrictions in recent days continues.
Macro Briefing: 28 November 2022
* Protests broke out across China against Covid restrictions
* Public anger over China’s zero-Covid policy Covid creates political risks for Xi
* China reports third straight day of daily record for new Covid cases
* China reaffirms its zero-Covid policy after widespread protests
* Recession risk may be rising, but hiring remains strong
* US gives Chevron permit to restart Venezuelan oil sales
* Markets pricing in a softer rate hike for Dec. 14 Fed meeting
* Risk appetite is rebounding, driven by outlook for softer Fed policy:
Book Bits: 26 November 2022
Nils Ole Oermann and Hans-Jürgen Wolff
Summary via publisher (Oxford U. Press)
This book explores the causes and instruments of 500 years of armed and non-armed international trade conflicts. Nils Ole Oermann and Hans-Jürgen Wolff draw on decades of experience to examine trade wars, economic sanctions, and different types of economic warfare, investigating their history, ethics, economic driving forces, and legality under current rules. They provide a clear and accessible account of the economics of trade, of trade and financial policy since the nineteenth century, and of the effectiveness of sanctions and the ‘winnability’ of trade wars.
Happy Thanksgiving 2022!
By special proclamation from the world headquarters of The Capital Spectator your editor hereby declares Thursday and Friday as days of rest, reflection and gratitude. The usual routine returns on Saturday with a new installment of Book Bits. Cheers!
Treasury Market Warns US Recession Risk Is Elevated
Recent data for the US economy reflect a mixed profile, but several widely followed business-cycle indicators are screaming recession.
Macro Briefing: 23 November 2022
* World economic growth projected to “slow further” in 2023, OECD predicts
* Despite slowing growth, world economy expected to avoid recession
* China’s ability to maintain zero-Covid policy may be fading
* Workers in China protest over pay amid anti-virus controls
* US and allies plan to announce oil price cap for Russian crude
* Eurozone business activity contracts for fifth month in November
* HP will layoff 6,000 workers in latest downsize in tech industry
* NY governor signs law banning certain bitcoin mining
* Richmond Fed Mfg Index continues to signal weak mfg conditions in November
* US 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve falls to -0.71, taking out previous low in 2000:
