The slowdown in US economic growth has yet to reach a tipping point that marks the start of recession, but the expansion may run out of road as early as November, according to new forecasts for a set of proprietary indicators published in The US Business Cycle Risk Report.
Monthly Archives: October 2022
Macro Briefing: 5 October 2022
* White House tries to dissuade Saudi Arabia from cutting oil production
* OPEC+ appears ready for deep cuts to its oil output targets
* Putin signs annexation of Ukrainian regions
* US national debt tops $31 trillion for the first time
* Why the Fed may not be so quick to pivot on rate hikes
* An unprecedented global deflationary cycle has begun, an economist advises
* Factory orders in US unchanged in August
* China’s economy faces several headwinds that are weighing on growth
* US job openings fall sharply in August, tumbling to 13-month low:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 October 2022
Long-run expected returns for risk assets continue to look relatively attractive in the wake of sharp declines in global markets, based on updates of several models run by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 4 October 2022
* North Korea fires missile over Japan in escalation of threatening behavior
* United Nations agency calls on Fed, other central banks to end rate hikes
* Pipeline sabotage is warning to West from Putin, Russia experts say
* Oil prices could rise to $100/barrel as OPEC+ considers production cuts
* Global manufacturing activity contracted in September via PMI survey data
* Construction spending in US falls the most in August in 1-1/2 years
* US Mfg PMI in September shows “renewed expansion”, but…
* US ISM Mfg Index edges closer to no-growth mark in September:
Major Asset Classes | September 2022 | Performance Review
The major asset classes suffered another harsh run of monthly losses in September, based on a set of proxy ETFs. Once again, nothing was spared (except for cash). Otherwise, losses dominated, echoing results in August.
Macro Briefing: 3 October 2022
* Brazil’s divisive presidential election goes to second round
* UK Prime Minister Truss makes U-turn on tax cuts after market turmoil
* OPEC+ considers production cut after slide in oil prices
* Ukraine continues to recapture territory
* Some Fed officials starting to question rate-hike policy
* Global natural gas market to remain tight in 2023, predicts IEA
* Credit Suisse shares tumble on concerns of investment bank’s financial health
* Cash no longer trash as investors rediscover appeal of Treasury bills as rates rise
* Consumer spending in US rebounded in August
* US 10-year Treasury yield rose for ninth straight week through Friday:
Book Bits: 1 October 2022
Scott Galloway
Review via Publishers Weekly
In this data-driven analysis, NYU business professor Galloway (Post Corona) charts rises in economic inequality, political partisanship, and social alienation since the 1980s. Contending that Ronald Reagan’s tax and budget cuts boosted the economy but suppressed social mobility, Galloway uses graphs, pie charts, and other visuals to illustrate the stark divide in wage growth between the top 1% of American workers and the rest, the declines in infrastructure spending that have left 45% of Americans without access to public transportation, and the sharp increase—from 5% to more than half—of corporate profits registered in foreign tax havens. On the flip side, he presents data documenting how U.S.-led globalization efforts over the past 40 years have decreased global poverty and infant mortality rates. The picture that emerges is one of accelerating domestic decline, as Reagan’s ethos of “rugged individualism” has morphed into “idolatry of innovators” while fostering intolerance and distrust in government.
