* IMF issues warning on global economic outlook
* Weak economic outlook implies lower inflation, analysts advise
* Strong dollar is ‘logical outcome’ of policy decisions, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* UK economy contracts in August, a downside surprise to forecasters
* Long-term inflation outlook suggests relatively mild pricing pressure
* US small business sentiment rises modestly for third month in September:
Mr. Market always has a view. Many, in fact. They’re not always right, but they keep coming. That includes views on the macro outlook. While there are no formal forecasts, there are implied estimates of various big-picture trends. One way to read the tea leaves: calculating the ebb and flow with various pairs of proxy ETFs.
* Russia launches second day of missile strikes on Ukraine
* Putin warns of more attacks after deadly Russian strikes across Ukraine
* Goldman Sachs says it’s “too early” to price in a dovish Fed pivot
* Fed’s Charles Evans reaffirms fighting inflation as top policy task
* Fed Vice Chair says rate hikes will slow economy over time
* Bank of England intervenes in bond markets again, sees financial-instability risk
* US stock market looks poised to retest recent lows:
Global markets posted a mixed run in last week’s trading, but the general trend continues to skew negative, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (Oct. 7).
* Russia launches wave of missile strikes across Ukraine
* This week’s consumer inflation report for September is in focus
* US adds more restrictions on sales of computer chip technology to China
* Will the Fed-engineered economic slide be deeper than necessary?
* Treasury Sec. Yellen: oil production cuts are a threat to global economy
* Resilient labor market suggests Fed’s inflation-fighting policies will persist
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller says housing correction could deepen
* Core inflation still rising, says chief economic adviser at Allianz
* US payrolls rise a solid 263,000 in September:
Martin Chorzempa
Summary via publisher (Public Affairs Books)
The future of finance – the way Wall Street operates and how individuals manage their money – is on the verge of upheaval. And the force underlying the change comes from China, where finance and technology are being merged into a system with consequences that resonate far beyond China’s border. The changes of this global revolution in finance and technology – fintech – will be as powerful as those wrought in social media, retailing and advertising by giants such as Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Twitter, which have overturned how we shop and communicate. China reinvented money with lightning speed, transforming a backward, antiquated cash-based finance system into one centered on super-apps created by technology giants Alibaba and Tencent.
The Factor Multiverse: The Role of Interest Rates in Factor Discovery
Jules H. van Binsbergen (University of Pennsylvania), et al.
September 2022
We study the importance of the decline in interest rates in the discovery of asset pricing anomalies. We investigate 153 discovered anomalies as well as 1,395 potential undiscovered anomalies and find that absent the decline in interest rates, the asset pricing literature would likely entertain a different set of anomalies today. As the decline in interest rates is not continuing, a reevaluation of relevant anomalies going forward is warranted. To this end, we use a duration-based interest rate adjustment procedure to classify anomalies into false positives, false negatives, and those robust to the effect of interest rates. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of the factor discovery process to this specific observed economic time period.
* Biden: risk of nuclear war highest since 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis
* IMF chief warns of rising recession risk for global economy
* Fed officials continue to push for higher interest rates
* Debt crisis may be brewing for developing nations
* US economy may be “rolling over,” writes economist Paul Krugman
* World currency reserves falling at fastest rate on record
* A new Covid surge may be approaching
* US jobless claims rise to 5-week high but remain historically low:
When will the Federal Reserve cease and desist its policy of raising interest rates and tightening policy? No one knows, including the Fed, for a simple reason: the path of inflation remains uncertain. The possibilities for reading the tea leaves, however, are endless. Let’s check in with some of the usual suspects for an update.
* North Korea continues to launch missiles as US redeploys carrier
* OPEC+ approves hefty cut in oil production to support prices
* Global economic activity decreased for second month in September
* Global trade expected to slow sharply, WTO predicts
* US hiring at companies picked up in September via ADP data
* Developing nations relying on China loans could face challenges as growth slows
* US Services PMI shows decline in business activity for third month in Sep., but…
* ISM Services Index eased in September but continues to reflect solid growth:
