* Biden reaffirms US defense of Taiwan if China attacks
* Pandemic is ‘over’, says Biden
* Markets eye another big rate hike from the Federal Reserve this week
* Rising bond yields change expectations for stocks
* Strong US dollar threatens to exacerbate a global economic slowdown
* Some European factories closing due to surging energy prices
* Hurricane Fiona batters Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico
* Millions evacuated in Japan as Typhoon Nanmadol strikes
* US 10yr Treasury yield rises for seventh straight week through Friday’s close:

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● Superabundance: The Story of Population Growth, Innovation, and Human Flourishing on an Infinitely Bountiful Planet
Marian L. Tupy and Gale L. Pooley
Essay by author (Tupy) via The Spectator
By our count, abundance has been doubling every 20 years or so. So, a 60-year-old Westerner has seen his standard of living rise from one to two, from two to four, and from four to 8 in his lifetime. Too slow, you say? That’s the modern mind speaking. Prior to the mid-18th century, life remained pretty much the same for millennia and no one thought that unusual. Generations of people lived and died without seeing or experiencing even the tiniest of improvements in their lives. What’s more, the scope for future improvements is immense.

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The dark side of rising interest rates is conspicuous near and far, but there’s also a bright side: higher yields, which are a byproduct of risk assets that take a beating in price, which in turn lifts trailing payout rates.

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* World Bank sees higher risk of 2023 recession amid global rate hikes
* Putin admits China has ‘questions and concerns’ over Russia’s war in Ukraine
* China retail sales, industrial output rise more than expected
* US industrial output dips in August but manufacturing activity turns up
* US jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week
* Worker strikes on the rise amid new demands for pay raises
* Gold falls to 2020 pandemic levels as rate hikes take a toll
* Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell in September
* New York Fed Manufacturing Index rebounds in September
* US retail sales picked up in August, posting upside surprise:

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Risk-off sentiment is back, or so recent market activity suggests. Maybe risk-off never left. There are many ways to assess this state of affairs. Let’s check in on one that uses market data via ETF pairs for some real-time perspective, as of yesterday’s close (Wed., Sep. 14).

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* Chin’s Xi and Russia’s Putin hold summit
* US rail strike averted after tentative deal is reached
* Policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield briefly tops 3.8%
* Mortgage rates top 8% for first time since 2008
* Demand for mortgages fall sharply as interest rates rise
* Higher rent prices are a key driver of inflation
* Wholesale inflation in US slips in August to still-high 8.7%
* California sues Amazon, alleging antitrust violations
* Business inflation expectations fell to 9-month low via Atlanta Fed survey:

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Inflation has probably peaked. The problem is that the slide from the peak is proving to be slower than expected, dipping at a glacial pace, if any, depending on the metric. Inflation persistence, in other words, is increasingly the new new worry.

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* US inflation showing signs of becoming more persistent
* Policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield above 3.79%, highest since 2007
* Xi and Putin will discuss Ukraine war at face-to-face meeting
* China reaps energy windfall after West rejects Russian supplies
* US consumer confidence rose in August, largest improvement since March 2021
* Americans suffer two years in a row of flat or declining household income
* EU upholds antitrust ruling against Google’s parent company Alphabet
* UK inflation rate unexpectedly eases to still-high 9.9%
* Eurozone industrial output falls sharply in July
* US consumer inflation slows less than forecast in August:

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Slow growth, rising interest rates, high inflation and a sundry list of other risk factors threaten to push the US economy into recession at some point in the near term. Or so a chorus of analysts and economists have been warning. It’s short-sighted to dismiss those forecasts, but the data published to date continue to show that US economic activity continues to defy the macro pessimists, at least for now.

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* Ukraine asks for more Western weapons after Russian setback
* US railroad strike poised to start, creating new headwind for economy
* Fed set for another 75bps rate hike next week via Reuters poll
* Soft landing becoming more likely for US economy, JP Morgan analysts predict
* US small business sentiment rebounded moderately in August
* Deposits at US banks fell by a record $370 billion in Q2
* UK jobless rate falls to 48-year low in July
* German investor sentiment continued to deteriorate in September
* Inflation expectations fell again in August, reports NY Fed survey:

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