* Treasury Sec. Yellen downplays US recession risk
* Peak inflation signs are emerging, but questions remain on how fast it can fall
* US economic headwinds strengthen via slower growth and more rate hikes
* Wall Street sees possibility of rate cuts for 2023
* Gold can’t catch a break, despite high inflation
* Eurozone economy contracts in July via PMI survey data
* German business sentiment falls to 2-year low in July
* Africa and south Asia expected to bear brunt of climate change instability.
* A survey-based GDP proxy shows the US economy contracting in July:

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● The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown
Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr
Review via Financial Times
Uncertainty in life is, ironically, certain. The past two years amid a pandemic have been no exception. Whether you’re a chief executive steering a business through the negative effects of lockdowns, a furloughed employee or, worse, someone who has faced job loss, at times the uncertainty for many has felt crippling.
However, Nathan Furr, a strategy and innovation professor at Insead business school in Paris, and Susannah Harmon Furr, an entrepreneur, believe we can reframe uncertainty in a way that helps us use it to our advantage.
According to the authors, our brains are wired to fear uncertainty’s downsides, but since it is not going away “learning to face the unknown well is critical to our ability to survive and thrive”. Based on both research and interviews, the book provides a practical framework that can be applied to help us find the possibilities from uncertainty and act on them.

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Three economic reports released on Thursday point to a rising possibility that a recession is near for the US economy. The threat of a contraction still doesn’t appear imminent and there’s still room for debate on the question of whether a recession is fate. But as new data on jobless claims, the Leading Economic Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index remind, the trend continues to soften. At the very least, the latest numbers show that economic activity continues to slow.

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* European Central Bank raises interest rates more than expected
* Eurozone appears to slip into recession in July via PMI survey data
* UK economy continues to grow in July but at 17-month low via PMI survey data
* US Leading Economic Index declines for fourth straight month
* Russia-Ukraine deal expected to restart grain exports
* Federal gov’t tells states in West to make urgent cuts in water use
* US jobless claims rise to new 8-month high, signaling labor market warning:

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The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Does this simple model find traction if we expand the analytics across the full sweep of the yield curve? The short answer, yes.

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* Russia restarts gas flow to Europe
* Is the world ready for higher interest rates? Maybe not
* EU urges nations in currency bloc to cut gas use by 15%
* US consumer spending still looks resilient. Will it last?
* 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve is inverted, predicting recession
* Italian Prime Minister Draghi resigns, sending Italy into new political turmoil
* US existing home sales fall for fifth straight month in June:

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Expectations continue to slide for next week’s release of GDP data for the second quarter (scheduled for July 28). The median estimate is still positive, just barely, but has fallen recently, based a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitaSpectator.com.

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* Brutal heatwave continues to bake Europe
* Extreme heat damages estimated at 0.3% to 0.5% of Europe’s GDP
* Global warming raises risk of extreme heat events
* EU will outline plan to curb Russian gas use as Putin issues new warning
* 100 million Americans issued heat advisory warnings
* UK inflation reaches new 40-year high: +9.4% at annual pace
* US housing starts in June fell to lowest level in nine months:

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US headline inflation continues to set to new four-decade highs and the Federal Reserve continues to signal that it will continue raising interest rates. The bond market, however, is starting to consider the possibility that peak inflation and peak policy tightening is approaching.

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* Russia edges closer to shutting gas flow to Europe
* China will take “forceful measures” if US House Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan
* New coronavirus lockdowns in China raise questions about economic outlook
* Eurozone inflation rises to new record high, adding pressure for rate hikes
* Inflation is “deeply entrenched” in global economy, says Goldman CEO
* Strong dollar is factor weighing on recent fall in commodity prices
* UK is expected to set hottest day for Tuesday
* US homebuilder confidence fell sharply in July:

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