The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Does this simple model find traction if we expand the analytics across the full sweep of the yield curve? The short answer, yes.
Daily Archives: July 21, 2022
Macro Briefing: 21 July 2022
* Russia restarts gas flow to Europe
* Is the world ready for higher interest rates? Maybe not
* EU urges nations in currency bloc to cut gas use by 15%
* US consumer spending still looks resilient. Will it last?
* 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve is inverted, predicting recession
* Italian Prime Minister Draghi resigns, sending Italy into new political turmoil
* US existing home sales fall for fifth straight month in June:
