Daily Archives: July 12, 2022

How To Estimate Recession Risk In Real Time? Pick Your Poison

Recession risk is rising, which inevitably leads to a discussion and debate about what exactly defines such an event. There’s no single definitive rule, at least nothing that can be easily summarized that’s also widely accepted by economists. But there are many theories. Ergo, it’s easy to become confused as you slip down this rabbit hole.

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Macro Briefing: 12 July 2022

* Worst is yet to come for global energy crisis, predicts IEA
* Strong US dollar expected to take a toll on corporate earnings
* Dividend payouts on track for another record in the second quarter
* US small business sentiment slips to 48-year low in June
* Do abortion bans in certain US states have an economic cost?
* Collapse of large crypto hedge fund highlights counterpart risk alert
* Americans cancel home-purchase deals at highest rate since start of pandemic
* US Dollar Index rises to new 20-year high:

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