No one knows, of course, but history can offer some perspective for what’s possible and so it’s useful to compare the current regime shift with previous runs of tighter policy.

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* Finland and Sweden set to join Nato after Turkey drops veto
* US home price gains eased in April but still rising at an annual 20%-plus pace
* Cleveland Fed’s Mester still backs another 75-basis-points rate hike in July
* Europe faces rising inflation and economic slowdown, says ECB economist
* Richmond Fed mfg index contracted again in June
* US Consumer Confidence Index falls to lowest since Feb. 2021: