Energy is still the only game in town for strong upside momentum in the US equity sector this year. Or perhaps a better way to explain the 2022 horse race to date: extreme divergence in favor of energy shares rolls on, based on a set of sector ETFs through Tuesday’s close (May 3).
Monthly Archives: May 2022
Macro Briefing: 4 May 2022
* European Union calls for gradual ban on Russian oil in new set of sanctions
* World’s second-largest fertilizer producer may be sanctioned by European Union
* Another N. Korean missile launch raises tension in Asia
* Federal Reserve expected to raise its policy rate by 50 basis points today
* Can the Fed tame inflation gently without causing a recession?
* Bank of England confronts what some are calling an inflationary spiral
* Guggenheim Partners CIO: interest rates could ‘trend higher for a generation’
* Beijing restricts public transport as Covid-19 spreads
* German exports fell sharply in March–first hard data on Ukraine-war blowback
* US factory orders rose sharply in March, beating estimates by wide margin
* US job openings in March rose to a series high:
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 May 2022
The expected risk premium continued sliding in April for the Global Markets Index (GMI). Today’s revision reflects a drop to a 5.4% annualized increase for the long term – a relatively large cut of 40 basis points from last month’s estimate. The new estimate strengthens the outlook, long featured in these updates, for managing expectations down for globally diversified multi-asset-class portfolios relative to realized returns in recent years.
Macro Briefing: 3 May 2022
* Supreme Court to overturn abortion-rights precedent, leaked document shows
* European Union set to propose phased-in ban on Russian oil
* Possibility of Fed mistake in focus ahead of Wednesday’s policy decision
* Is the era of low-cost supply abundance ending?
* Bank of England expected to raise interest rates to 13-year high
* Australia raises interest rates for first time in over a decade
* China’s manufacturing contraction is accelerating via April PMI survey data
* US ISM Mfg Index slips again in April but still indicates moderate growth:
Major Asset Classes | April 2022 | Performance Review
Red ink spilled across nearly every slice of the major asset classes in April. Commodities were the exception, posting a solid gain. Otherwise, losses prevailed, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 2 May 2022
* EU energy ministers in crisis talks re: Russia’s energy supplies
* Rumors of Putin’s ill health emerge
* Fed funds futures predicts 1/2-point rate hike at Fed meeting this week
* Three signs that suggest inflation may be peaking
* Inflation has surged, growth has slowed, but experts don’t expect stagflation
* Consumer-staples stocks return to the limelight for jittery investors
* Recession is main concern for institutional investors
* US consumer spending rose for third month in March:
