Monthly Archives: May 2022

Macro Briefing: 11 May 2022

* NATO leaders fret over uncertain end-game for Ukraine war
* US spy chief says Putin is preparing for long conflict in Ukraine
* Fed officials consider why central bank acted slowly to tame inflation
* Household debt in US in Q1 posts largest single-quarter increase since 2006
* US gasoline prices reach record high price
* China consumer annual inflation rises to 5-month high in April: +2.1%
* China’s upcoming wheat harvest is concern for global food prices
* Are oil stocks the new FAANGs?
* UST, a ‘stablecoin’ designed to maintain a $1 peg, plunges
* US small business sentiment in April remains well below long-term average:

Value Factor Is Relative Haven For Stocks So Far In 2022

There’s no place to hide within the US equities risk factor spectrum, at least in absolute terms. But value stocks continue to shine on a relative basis via light losses this year. Will it last? More importantly, can value stocks regain their mojo and at some point outperform the growth factor with higher gains for an extended period? Or is the historical value premium destined to fade into a perpetual underperforming risk premium?

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Macro Briefing: 10 May 2022

* Biden urges Congress to quickly pass new aid package for Ukraine
* Biden worried that Putin doesn’t have exit strategy for Ukraine war
* Germany prepares for sudden end to Russian gas supplies
* Rough year for government retirement funds set to get worse
* Emerging market currencies suffer from rising rates and slower growth
* Consumer inflation outlook falls in April from record high in previous month
* US housing market may be a bubble, or close to it
* Bitcoin trades below $30,000 for first time since last July
* S&P 500 Index’s drawdown sinks to -16.8% — deepest in two years:

Macro Briefing: 9 May 2022

* Putin says West caused Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in ‘Victory Day’ speech
* China exports take a hit: growth slows to 2-year low in April
* Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appears to win presidential election in Philippines
* US consumer debt levels surged in March 2022, fueled by credit-card spending
* Rising interest rates are a double-edged sword for banks
* Winners and losers from the strengthening US dollar
* Odds for soft US economic landing may higher than expected, says analyst
* 5-year US Treasury yield at highest since 2008 in Monday trading
* US Dollar Index at fresh 20-year high in early trading on Monday:

Book Bits: 7 May 2022

What You Don’t Know: AI’s Unseen Influence on Your Life and How to Take Back Control
Cortnie Abercrombie
Summary via publisher (Narrow Gauge Books)
A Big Tech exec pulls back the curtain on the unseen forces at work labeling you, tracking you, and triggering you—deciding your employability, quality of life, and even whether you should live or die—because what you don’t know about them could actually hurt you. You are probably not aware, because of their hidden nature, but Artificial Intelligence systems are all around you affecting some of the biggest areas of your life—jobs, loans, kids, mental health, relationships, freedoms, and even healthcare decisions that can determine if you live or die. As an executive working in AI at one of the largest, most sophisticated tech companies on the planet, Cortnie Abercrombie saw firsthand how the corporate executives and data science teams of the Fortune 500 think about and develop AI systems.

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US Financial Conditions Profile: 6 May 2022

Recession anxiety continues to roil expectations for the US economy, which inspires a periodic review of financial conditions. When macro risk is rising, early warnings may show up as changes in this corner. At a time when the Federal Reserve is increasingly committed to raising interest rates to fight inflation, it’s timely to check in on how financial conditions are evolving.

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Macro Briefing: 6 May 2022

* Leaked Supreme Court draft opinion suggests precedents may be overturned
* Global economic growth slips to 22-month in April via PMI survey data
* World food prices pull back slightly in April after reaching record high
* Slowing China growth and rising global rates are major headwinds, analysts say
* Significant recession brewing for Europe, predict several CEOs of blue chip firms
* German 10-year yield rises to highest level since 2014
* Argentina’s central bank bans cryptocurrency transactions at country’s banks
* Globalization still a critical driver for large US companies
* Worker productivity in US falls at sharpest rate since 1947
* US jobless claims rise to highest level since February:

Peak Inflation Still Doesn’t Look Imminent

The Federal Reserve, as expected, raised its policy rate by 50-basis-points yesterday to a 0.75%-to-1.0% range, signaling to the market that the central bank is resolved to fight inflation. But there’s a long road ahead and the Fed remains well behind the curve as inflation continues to run hot. The key question: Will the central bank catch a break as inflation begins to peak?

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Macro Briefing: 5 May 2022

* Analysts raise concerns on risk of new Russian escalation of war on Ukraine
* US 10yr Treasury yield pulls back from 3.0% after Fed’s 50-basis-point rate hike
* Rate hikes in US will create headwinds for foreign economies
* Falling US jobless rate may complicate Fed’s strategy to fight inflation
* Surging energy prices lift oil giant Shell quarterly profit to 14-year high
* European companies are rethinking investing in China
* China’s economic contraction accelerated in April via PMI survey data
* German factory orders fell again in March, posting biggest drop in 5 months
* US ISM Services Index slipped in April but still reflects solid growth
* US hiring at companies slows more than expected in April: