Recession forecasts are topical lately, driven by the recent inversion of the Treasury yield curve for 2- and 10-year rates. But some economists see a strong labor market as a key factor that will keep the expansion alive.
Monthly Archives: April 2022
Macro Briefing: 5 April 2022
* US stops Russian government from paying holders of its sovereign deb
* Ukraine war boosts shift to renewable energy as fossil fuel demand rises
* Recession forecasts are on the rise, but the economy is strong
* US jobs market is tightest since World War II, estimates Goldman Sachs
* China’s struggle with surging Covid-19 cases focuses on Shanghai
* Eurozone growth was strong in March as inflation surged
* US factory orders fell in February–first monthly loss since April 2021:
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 April 2022
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate.
Macro Briefing: 4 April 2022
* Reports of war crimes by Russia emerge in Ukraine war
* JPMorgan CEO says inflation, Ukraine war ‘dramatically increase risks’ for US
* Why is US population growth rapidly slowing?
* Global mfg growth slows to 18-month low in March via PMI survey data
* Fed funds futures pricing in high probability of 50-basis-point rate hike in May
* US payrolls continue to rise at strong pace in March
* US 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve turns negative for first time since 2019:
Book Bits: 2 April 2022
Juliette Kayyem
Interview with author via Lawfare
We live in a time of seemingly constant catastrophes, and we always seem a step behind and still fumble when they occur. It’s no longer about preventing disasters from occurring, but learning how to use the tools at our disposal to minimize the consequences when they inevitably do.
Juliette Kayyem has just written a book about it all called, “The Devil Never Sleeps: Learning to Live in an Age of Disasters.” Juliette is a lecturer at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and a CNN national security analyst, and David Priess sat down with her to talk about it all.
Major Asset Classes | March 2022 | Performance Review
Commodities continued to top monthly returns for the major asset classes in March. The leadership marks the third straight month that raw materials outperformed the rest of the field by a wide margin, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 April 2022
* Biden orders release of oil to lower gas prices
* UK will join US in releasing oil from strategic reserve
* Ukraine strikes Russian military depot inside Russia
* Global dealmaking falls to lowest level since start of pandemic
* China factory activity falls at fastest pace in two years via survey data
* 2yr/10yr Treasury yield curve inverts for first time since 2019 on Thursday
* US jobless claims rise after touching 50-year low
* Consumer spending growth for US cools in February
* US personal income growth picks up in February, in line with estimates
* US stocks post first quarterly decline in Q1 in two years:
