* Ukraine asks for financial support to ensure country’s ‘survival’
* Biden urges India’s prime minister to reduce purchases of Russian oil
* US orders non-emergency government staff to leave Shanghai due to Covid-19
* High inflation is conspicuous throughout the global economy
* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to highest level in over three years
* Economists estimate US consumer inflation reached new 40-year high in March
* Recession obsession is breaking out everywhere
* Pakistan parliament elects new prime minister
* S&P says Russia has defaulted on its debt
* US Dollar Index remains strong, ticking up to new 2-year high:

The opening week of April was rough on the major asset classes, with the exception of commodities, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Friday, Mar. 8.

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* New Russian assaults focus on eastern Ukraine
* French President Macron faces far-right Le Pen in presidential election
* Rise in US Treasury yields rippling through global markets
* US 10-year Treasury yield tops equivalent for China for first times since 2010
* Economists see a growing risk of a US recession
* It’s not a recession, it’s a ‘war-cession,’ says a leading strategist
* US mortgage payment-to-income ratio tops 29%, highest since 2007
* China continues to promote Russia’s propaganda on Ukraine war
* Economists expect US consumer inflation to accelerate further in March:

● Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least
Antti Ilmanen
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices.

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The US 10-year Treasury yield continued rising on Thursday (Apr. 7), reaching 2.66% — the highest in over three years. The ongoing upside momentum suggests that the benchmark rate will continue to run higher. But as today’s update of CapitalSpectator.com’s fair-value model suggests, there may be limits to how far and how fast this crucial rate can rise.

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* How will Jackson’s ascent to Supreme Court impact the country?
* UN suspends Russia from the organization’s human rights body
* US consumer debt ramped up in February
* Rising mortgage rates may be starting to push house prices lower
* China lockdowns for spreading Covid-19 lead to more supply-chain disruptions
* Global food prices reach new high, soaring at fastest monthly rate in 14 years
* US jobless claims fell to 166,000 last week–lowest since 1968
* 10yr Treasury yield continues rising, reaching 2.66%–highest in over 3 years:

In a series of articles I’ve looked at alternatives to the standard 60/40 stock/bond benchmark using mostly US securities (see links below). Let’s add another flavor to the analysis using a portfolio of China stocks and bonds.

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* Ukraine asks NATO for more weapons as Russia regroups for new attacks
* Treasury Sec. warns of ‘enormous’ economic repercussions from war in Ukraine
* China warns US against House Speaker Pelosi visiting Taiwan
* Fed officials decide to shrink balance sheet soon, minutes indicate
* Fed funds futures pricing in relatively high odds of 50-basis-point rate hikes
* Big oil bosses say there’s no quick fix to oil shortage
* Senate expected to confirm Jackson to Supreme Court today
* Russia appears to default on its debt after payments made in roubles
* Global economic activity slowed in March via Composite PMI, a GDP proxy:

The US stock market remains on the defensive, but it’s not yet obvious that the threat of an extended downside run is imminent. Nonetheless, there’s a case for a cautious stance. The main risk factor, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine and the uncertainty that it poses to markets and the global economy. Elevated inflation and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve add to the potential for trouble.

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* Russian military pounds Ukrainian cities as the West prepares more sanctions
* Treasury Sec. Yellen set to warn of economic blowback from Ukraine war
* Can Germany end its dependency on Russian gas? It’ll try, but it won’t be easy
* Fed’s Brainard says central bank may soon begin ‘rapid’ balance-sheet reduction
* 30-year fixed mortgage above 5% for first time since 2011
* China services sector activity fell at sharp pace in March, PMI survey shows
* US Q1 GDP growth nowcast remains weak via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model
* US services sector growth picked up in March via ISM Services Index: