Broadly defined commodities posted the only gain for the major asset classes — again, based on set of proxy ETFs for last week’s shortened holiday trading schedule through Thursday, Apr. 14.

* US recession odds at 35% for next 2 years, Goldman Sachs predicts
* China’s first quarter GDP grew faster than expected
* China’s PMI survey data points to ongoing economic slowdown in April
* Fallout from China’s zero-Covid policy is overlooked risk for global economy
* Ukraine war creates headwinds for emerging-market governments to pay debts
* NFT bubble is beginning to burst, predicts ‘Black Swan’ author
* US consumer sentiment index posts surprising rebound in early April:

● The Case for Long-Term Value Investing: A guide to the data and strategies that drive stock market success
Jim Cullen
Summary via publisher (Harriman House)
Value investing moves in and out of favor, but the data doesn’t lie. It has always worked, and will continue to work — as long as investors apply a value discipline and invest for the long term.
In The Case for Long-Term Value Investing, experienced Wall Street pro Jim Cullen presents the eye-opening data that backs this up, explaining how investors can use the value approach for successful investing today, as well as sharing a wealth of fascinating stories from his time on the Street.

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A Look Under the Hood of Momentum Funds
Ayelen Banegas and Carlo Rosa (Federal Reserve)
February 2022
Momentum investing has surged over the past few years, with assets growing at three times the rate of conventional funds. Using a comprehensive dataset of US equity funds, this paper examines the economic value of momentum funds. Overall, we find that risk-adjusted returns of momentum funds are, on average, negative, and most of the time series variation of those returns is explained by exposure to the market factor. Furthermore, momentum funds do not improve the performance of investors who already invest in Fama-French factors.

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* US Secretary of State says UKraine war could last through 2022
* Strategists question bets that Fed will raise target rate to 3%
* China holds military drills around Taiwan as US lawmakers visit
* America’s most popular mortgage rate at 5%–highest in over a decade
* China’s new Covid lockdowns are a risk for global inflation, strategists predict
* Europe’s relationship with China is becoming increasingly tense
* Crypto bosses say regulation for industry turning in their favor
* US consumer sentiment posts surprising rebound in April to 3-month high
* Jobless claims in US rose last week but remain near 50-year low
* US retail sales rose 0.5% in March as inflation continued to sizzle:

Not all recession forecasts are created equal. Meanwhile, US recession forecasts are everywhere. From the lips of famous economists to casual observers of the macro scene, warnings of economic contraction are sprouting like primrose and tulips. The challenge is that the projections don’t come with warning labels, making it difficult to interpret the validity, relevance and timeliness of the forecasts on a case-by-case basis.

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* Biden announces $800 million in new military aid for Ukraine
* US producer-price inflation rose at record-high pace in March
* Is economic recession the only solution for high inflation?
* Economic shock for US housing market is starting to take a toll
* Wall Street thinks the worst of the inflation surge is over
* Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations holds steady in April
* Amazon adds 5% fuel and inflation surcharge for shippers
* Germany is Russia’s primary enabler, sending $200 million a day
* Economists predict sharp recession for Europe if Russian turns off gas
* Global mining shares continue to show strong upside momentum:

The argument that bitcoin (BTC) is money faces an uphill battle. It’s hard to spend in the real world and its value is highly volatile. That doesn’t stop some advocates of the cryptocurrency from insisting that BTC is coin of the realm. If so, it’s not obvious by running correlation analytics on BTC against several conventional asset classes.

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* Putin says peace talks with Ukraine are at dead
* Will modest rate hikes tame inflation? Think again, says top Fed official
* Inflation wave starting to reach Asia
* China Covid lockdowns risk triggering new global supply-chain problems
* US Inflation Savings Bonds set to yield above 9%
* Small business optimism index falls to lowest in nearly two years in March
* US consumer inflation up more than expected in March, up 8.5% from year ago:

The upcoming first-quarter report on US economic output is expected to post the softest gain since the recovery from the coronavirus recession began in the second half of 2020.  

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