The art and science of modeling returns of financial assets is forever unsatisfying because no one model fully captures the true behavior of asset performances. As a result, there comes a point when researchers are forced to pick a poison that appears less wrong than the alternatives.

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* NATO says it’s prepared to support Ukraine for years
* Is it time to position portfolios for recession, Fed failure? Not yet, says UBS
* Eurozone inflation again reaches record high in April
* Stagflation risk rising for Europe as growth slows
* Jobless claims in US remain near 50-year low
* Despite GDP slide in Q1, economists expect rebound in growth for rest of 2022
* US economy contracted 1.4% in first quarter, well below expectations: