Trends are among the most powerful forces in economics and finance, but every trend plants the seeds of its own reversal. If prices rise (fall) enough, the trend reverses. Forecasting these reversals is tricky, mostly because of the complication and chaos unleashed by the feedback loops that infuse markets and economies.

Continue reading →

* Will Russia’s battle for Ukraine’s Donbas region decide the war?
* IMF cuts growth outlook for global economy due to Ukraine war
* China will continue strengthening strategic ties with Russia, says diplomat
* China risks self-inflicted recession with aggressive battle to eradicate Omicron
* Shanghai starts to ease virus controls that shut down China’s biggest city
* Signs of demand destruction for commodities are starting to emerge
* Companies acquired in LBO deals at risk with rising interest rates
* The Fed’s hawkish pivot looks set to cool the housing market
* US housing starts rose more than than forecast in March: