* US and European officials discussing plans for Ukrainian government in exile
* US talking with allies re: banning imports of Russian oil, says US Sec. of State
* West resists calls from Ukraine for establishing a no-fly zone
* US walks fine line supplying arms to Ukraine and avoiding direct conflict
* Ukraine war will shock food supply and cost, warns exec at fertilizer firm
* Average US gasoline price tops $4 a gallon, highest since 2008
* Forecasters increasingly cautious on US economic outlook
* US payrolls rebounded in February, rising well above the consensus forecast:

● Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell and the Fed Battled a President and a Pandemic—and Prevented Economic Disaster
Nick Timiraos
Review via Publishers Weekly
Timiraos weaves a lucid behind-the-scenes narrative of the early Covid panic, when Powell and the Fed staff struggled hour by hour to get money out to a collapsing economy and worked with Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and a fractious Congress to cobble together emergency fiscal measures, while cogently exploring the economic trade-offs among unemployment, inflation, stability, and moral hazard. This is a riveting story of policy making in crisis and an illuminating examination of how drastically the Fed’s role in the economy has changed.

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As the Ukraine war rages on, the global economy will suffer and the blowback will spill over to the US in some degree. The repercussion is starting to show up in first-quarter nowcasts for first-quarter GDP activity.

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* Russian forces attack and then seize Ukrainian nuclear power plant
* Bipartisan pressure rising on Biden administration to end Russian oil imports
* As Western pressures increase on Russia, how will Putin react?
* Fed’s Powell admits ‘we should have moved earlier’ to end pandemic stimulus
* Global economic growth picks up in February after slowing to 1-1/2 year low
* US ISM Services Index slows to a one-year low in February, but…
* US Services Index in February posts ‘sharp upturn in activity’
* US factory orders rose more than expected in January
* US jobless claims last week fell to lowest level since start of the year:

The Global Market Index’s (GMI) risk-adjusted performance continues to retreat after peaking in December, based on the trailing 3-year Sharpe ratio, a measure of return adjusted by volatility. The sharp reversal has also dragged down the 10-year rolling Sharpe ratio. Both measures fell in February to their lowest levels in nearly a year for this multi-asset-class benchmark.

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* Fed Chair Powell says rate hikes coming, but Ukraine creates uncertainty
* First major Ukrainian city ‘fallen’ to Russian troops
* More than 1 million people flee Ukraine after Russia’s invasion
* The West’s reaction to Ukraine war could cripple Russia’s economy, say analysts
* Commodity prices soar — S&P GSCI index at highest level since 2008
* MSCI pulls Russian stocks from emerging markets indices
* China Composite PMI shows economic growth was “muted” in February.
* Is eastern Europe at risk from Russia?
* US companies continued to hire workers at a strong pace in February:

War, turmoil and chaos tend to shorten our attention span, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is no different. As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. Volatility and uncertainty have spiked – for the short term. But when it’s hard to look past the next 24 hours, it’s still useful to think long term as a tool to look through the crisis and consider how the long game may unfold for investment strategies.

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* Biden says he’ll halt Russia, fight inflation in State of the Union address
* Oil prices at risk of skyrocketing from already high levels
* Brent oil, the international benchmark, tops $110 a barrel on Wednesday
* Three paths for how the Ukraine war ends
* Global supply chains face new pressures as Ukraine war continues
* White House says US is realigning trade policy toward China
* Eurozone headline inflation rises to record 5.1% January as core inflation eases
* Global manufacturing activity registers moderate pace of growth in February
* US manufacturing activity posts another solid performance in Feb via ISM data
* US Q1 GDP estimate now at 0% growth via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model:

Most markets around the world continued to slide in February, marking the second month of widespread losses in 2022 for the major asset classes. The main exceptions: commodities and inflation-indexed government bonds.

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* Russia set to launch all-out assault on Ukraine’s Kyiv
* US economy appears set to withstand shock from Ukraine crisis
* Western sanctions threaten inflation surge and shortages in Russia
* Russian ruble fell about 30% against the US dollar on Monday
* Russian markets increasingly look uninvestable
* ICC will open investigation into charges of war crimes committed in Ukraine
* Shell, BP and other oil firms exit joint ventures with Russia
* China’s factory activity expanded slightly in February
* US trade deficit in goods increased sharply to record high in January
* 10-year Treasury yield falls to 3-week low as risk-off sentiment strengthens: